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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: dvdw© who wrote (17310)	6/11/2003 1:10:02 PM
From: High Country Trader	Respond to of 19219

........>>>>> Different Sentiment for different conditions; there seems to be an unwillingness to change methodologies based on changing conditions.......<<<<< One of the best quotes I've seen in a long time. Thanks for sharing.

To: dvdw© who wrote (17310)	6/11/2003 4:56:58 PM
From: J.T.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19219

Does conventional wisdom teach the broader community to fade these numbers? On balance, yes. Especially when given the extremes as have shown up in the numbers today. 40 years of historical data have backed it up. However, like anything else, this is not an infallible sentiment measurement. Only a warning shot across the bow to be on high alert. I have stated several times now in the past 3 months, that the Consensus Numbers, Rydex numbers and to a lesser extent Market Vane trump Investors intelligence as a sentiment tool in early stages of major market advances. Rydex numbers for me have been the lead sentiment indicator this year staying long. Only up until last week when the RSI levels got to triple and quadruple overbought levels did I go short. Price told me to take profit on the short side on Monday and I did and went back to cash. Today I gave back the short side gain. From my perspective this data corroborates the transfer of shares to channel partners is ongoing, that is not a fade. That is more like a fact worth supporting. This is true TODAY. Why? price keeps going higher. This was not true in 2000 - 2002 when II levels got this extreme... b/c prices were moving lower. The SIP portfolio took its lumps in 2002. Why? Obfuscation is one reason. The real reason? Prices went lower. Just like today, only opposite. Prices went higher. Period.