June 11, 2003
Commentary: Where is the 'road map' going?
By Claude Salhani
UPI International Editor
LONDON, June 11 (UPI) -- The Middle East peace summits are over and so is the short period of calm that accompanied them. It was, of course, too good to last. But then again, few Middle East analysts expected miracles.
No sooner had President George W. Bush returned home from his attempts at forging peace between Palestinians and Israelis, than both sides were at it again, first exchanging strong words, then bullets, followed by rockets fired from attack helicopters and ultimately, promises of even greater violence.
Less than a week after the dual summits -- and 36 years after the June 6, 1967, Arab-Israeli Six Day War -- the outlook for a settlement looks about as bleak now, as it did then.
Of course, the first question that jumps to mind is why the sudden flare-up after it appeared -- albeit briefly -- as though peace was finally on track with the "road map" about to be implemented.
Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon had publicly said "outposts" would be dismantled. And newly appointed Palestinian Authority Prime Minister Mahmoud Abbas promised an end to terror activities.
The problem is that Sharon would not go far enough in dismantling the settlements and that Abbas does not have the authority to follow up on his promises.
"In an effort to demonstrate compliance with the 'road map,' the Israeli government has started to dismantle 15 of what it calls 'unauthorized' settlement outposts in the Occupied Palestinian Territories," states a fact sheet released this week by the Palestine Liberation Organization Negotiations Affairs Department.
"The dismantlement is not consistent with Israel's 'road map' obligations," continues the statement.
"Phase 1 of the 'road map' requires that Israel 'immediately dismantles settlement outposts erected since March 2001.' The word 'unauthorized' does not appear in the 'road map' text and its unilateral insertion by Israel is intended to allow Israel to remove only those settlements outposts that it, in its sole discretion, deems 'unauthorized,'" continues the PLO document.
As you can attest, we are off to a bad start.
And for their part, the settlers say they will fight any attempt by the Israeli government to remove them.
"If we are evacuated, we'll return the night after and establish 10 new outposts," said Israeli settler spokesman, Yehoshua Mor-Yosef, as quoted in the International Herald Tribune.
So what went wrong at the summits?
Yasser Arafat, president of the Palestinian Authority with whom Bush and Sharon refused to do business, had been relegated to the sidelines. The more moderate Abbas, also known as Abu Mazen, was now the front-man, recognized by Bush and the world community as the new, kinder, face of the Palestinians.
To stress the point home and confirm him in that position, Bush held a "coming out" summit for Abu Mazen. They met in the Egyptian Red Sea resort of Sharm el-Sheikh prior to the main summit, and a day later, with Sharon in the Jordanian port city of Aqaba.
By convening in Sharm el-Sheikh with Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, Saudi Crown Prince Abdullah, Jordan's King Abdullah, and Bahrain's King Hamad Bin Issa al-Khalifa, Bush aimed to impress to the Arab world that Abu Mazen, and not Arafat, is in charge of the Palestinians.
That meeting was immediately followed by the Aqaba summit where Sharon and Abu Mazen made promises of peace and shook hands in front of the world's media.
But if you want to know what really went wrong just look at who was NOT present at these two summits. The absence of participants who should have been there speaks volumes.
For starters, a huge player in the Middle East arena missing from the first summit in Egypt was Syria's president Bashar Assad. Assad, who came under heavy U.S. criticism during the war on Iraq for allegedly offering support to fleeing Iraqi officials, and supplying night-vision goggles to the Iraqis, holds some of the major trump cards in the Middle East peace process.
The Syrians hold great sway over groups such as Hezbollah, the Shiite organization in Lebanon, as well as the Islamic fundamentalist Hamas and Islamic Jihad who operate in the Palestinian territories, and who remain opposed to the peace process.
The U.S. government considers these groups to engage in terrorism and has placed them on the State Department's terrorist list. While not on the list, Syria, in fact, is not far behind. The U.S. keeps waving the Syria Accountability Act over Damascus, hoping to keep the Syrians in line.
But by actively engaging Syria in the peace process the Bush administration would have given itself an additional asset, procuring an indirect way to pressure the fundamentalist Islamic groups. What better way to control them then by Syrian proxy?
Instead, for whatever reason, Syria was kept out of the way, relegated to the penalty box of politics. Maybe it was punishment for their reluctance to support the U.S. invasion of Iraq.
The second absentee of mark from the Aqaba summit was, naturally, Arafat.
It is worth recalling that Arafat still wields far more power than Abu Mazen. Of the 14 distinct security groups that operate in the Palestinian Authority, Arafat controls half, while Abu Mazen holds barely any authority over three of the groups, at most. Eighteen of the 25 Cabinet ministers are members of Fatah, Arafat's party, and remain largely loyal to the "old man" as Arafat is affectionately called. And, Arafat remains far more popular in the streets.
While Arafat does not control the extremists, you can rest assured that his influence over them is far greater than Abu Mazen's.
The reasons behind Arafat's exclusion from the summits might be understandable. What is less so, is why Bush kept the Syrians away from Sharm el-Sheikh. This would have been a good time to break the ice and bring them into the process.
Instead, the cycle of violence was allowed to reignite. In a joint operation Hamas, Islamic Jihad and the al-Aqsa Brigades, a branch of Arafat's Fatah movement, attacked an Israeli military post at the Erez crossing between Israel and Gaza, killing several Israeli soldiers. And of course, Israel retaliated with attack helicopters as it tried to kill Abdel-Aziz Ranteesi, a prominent Hamas leader. They missed him, but managed to kill several innocent bystanders. Hamas has promised more attacks, this time targeting Israeli political leaders.
As Bush said shortly after the attacks, "It will make it more difficult for the Palestinian leadership."
One may well question the logic of doing business with people who cannot deliver while distancing those who can. As to where will these latest developments drive the "road map?" The answer could be, alas, towards a precipice. |
