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To: Triffin who wrote (48574)	6/11/2003 2:38:47 PM
From: Carl Worth	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 53068

if you go by CNBC, the housing bubble should have burst 2 to 3 years ago, they've been calling for it since at least early 2001 at some point LEAPs on the builders will probably pay off at least to some extent, because they have had good runs, but you need a better indicator than CNBC as far as a trigger to buy those LEAPs...IMHO carl

To: Triffin who wrote (48574)	6/11/2003 2:49:44 PM
From: E.J. Neitz Jr	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 53068

Jim, if you do, go with the high end builders. Toll Brothers could feel the impact more than others. Lot of sales to the 2 income couples/families that only a few years ago couldn't "afford" that $300,000+ home in Mid-atlantic market.....with low interest rates...they "can afford" it. This reminds me of late 1980's when I was a bank lender in commercial real estate. Summer of 1989 Barrons ran a story written by the Real Estate expert with Saloman Brothers....very negative on all housing...same bubble talk(lot of non-believers then also)...took about 6 months for the real estate market to "collapse" and kicked off the early 90's bank crisis. It is this issue that has Greenspan very worried about deflation.