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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SemiBull who wrote (10082)	6/11/2003 8:28:53 PM
From: Return to Sender	Respond to of 95531

CLOSING WRAP-UP, June 11 optionetics.com By Jody Osborne, Optionetics.com 6/11/2003 6:45:00 PM Stocks continue to rally, sending S&P 500 ($SPX) within 3 points of 1,000. The SPX rose 12.64 points, or 1.28 percent, to close the session at 997.48. The Dow ($INDU) tacked on 128.33 points to finish the day at 9,183.22. The Nasdaq ($COMPQ) underperformed the broader market, but this gained 1.13 percent to 1,646.02. Volume picked up from Tuesday’s figures, with the NYSE trading 1.5 billion shares and the Naz turning over 1.9 billion. Market breadth was positive by a 24-to-9 and 19-to-13 margin on the Big Board and Naz respectively. Ironically, stocks rose sharply despite a decline for chip stocks. The Philly Semiconductor Index ($SOX) came off earlier lows, but still lost 0.60 percent on the session. Texas Instruments (TXN) added their name to the group of companies warning about the impact of SARS on their financial results. Shares of TXN fell 7.50 percent on the news, as several analysts lowered their rating on the stock. Morgan Stanley lowered its view on the whole chip sector because of valuation and possible near-term earnings risks. After the bell, the Semiconductor Industry Association lowered its 2003 growth target to 10.1 percent from a range of 10 to 15 percent. For 2004, the SIA lowered its growth projection to 16.8 percent from 22 percent. Economic news wasn’t particularly strong on Wednesday, but traders bought stocks on hopes of a brighter future. The Fed’s Beige book report showed little improvement across the 12 Fed districts, but traders were glad to see that conditions didn’t worsen. The employment situation continues to be a major concern and traders will get more information on this front Thursday when weekly jobless claims data is released. Despite the slight improvement in economic data, there is little doubt that the FOMC will lower rates later this month. In fact, it no longer is a question of if the Fed will cut rates, but by how much. Fed fund futures are pricing in a 100 percent chance of a 25-basis point cut and a 36 percent chance of rate being lowered by 50-basis points. Despite the large advances for stocks on Wednesday, the CBOE Market Volatility Index ($VIX) traded flat on the session. The VIX did move as low at 21.79, but closed at 22.12. Nonetheless, we need to keep an eye on this indicator for a sign of when the bulls might have run their course. Jody Osborne Senior Staff Writer & Options Strategist Optionetics.com ~ Your Options Education Site

To: SemiBull who wrote (10082)	6/11/2003 8:32:24 PM
From: Return to Sender	Respond to of 95531

SIA cuts IC outlook in '03 and '04 despite Asia growth By Mark LaPedus Semiconductor Business News (06/11/03 05:36 p.m. EST) siliconstrategies.com SAN JOSE, Calif. -- Despite a surge in IC demand from Asia-Pacific, the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) on Wednesday (June 11) lowered its chip forecasts for 2003 and 2004, but was slightly more upbeat than previously expected for 2005 and 2006. The San Jose-based trade group projected worldwide semiconductor sales would increase 10.1 percent to $154.9 billion in 2003, 16.8 percent to $180.9 billion in 2004, 5.8 percent to $191.5 billion in 2005, and 7 percent to $204.9 billion in 2006. The compound annual growth rate for the IC industry will hit 9.8 percent for the period from 2003 through 2006, according to the SIA. This represents the latest in a range of falling forecasts for the SIA. In June of 2002, the SIA originally projected the worldwide semiconductor industry will grow by 23.2 percent in 2003 and 20.9 percent in 2004 (see June 5, 2002 story ). Then, warning of a slower growth rate for the IC industry, the SIA last November lowered its chip forecast, saying the worldwide semiconductor market will increase by 19.8 percent in 2003. It also projected 21.7 percent growth for 2004, but dropped hints the IC industry would experience another major downturn in 2005. But by April of 2003, the SIA ended up revising down the forecast. “Our forecast was 19% but due to geopolitical impact we see 10-to-15% now,” said George Scalise, president of the SIA, in April (see April 4 story ). Scalise narrowed the forecast to a modest 10.1 percent for 2003, but painted a rosy picture in 2004. "In 2004, the growth is led by a strong increase in memory, including a 43 percent jump in DRAM and a 25 percent increase in flash, and supported by double digit growth in other product sectors," he said. "The recovery is broad based across computer, consumer and communications applications as they all continue to be drivers for the industry,” he said. “The forecast contemplates a return to higher IT spending levels and the emergence of multi-function products such as smart phones." But still, the dynamics are changing in the semiconductor industry. "Semiconductor consumption is forecast to continue a migration from the Americas to Asia Pacific, reflecting the outsourcing of electronic equipment manufacturing, including component sourcing and design services, to the region," he noted. In terms of regions, Asia-Pacific is the largest chip market in 2003, followed by Japan, Europe, and the Americas. The Americas market will decline 2.1 percent to $30.6 billion in 2003, and then grow 15.7 percent to $35.4 billion in 2004. In 2005, the SIA predicts that market to remain nearly flat with a slight decline of .09 percent to $35.1 billion, and then resume growth of 8.8 percent in 2006 to $38.24 billion. Europe will grow 11.8 percent in 2003 to $31.1 billion, 13.6 percent to $35.3 billion in 2004, 4.7 percent to $36.9 billion in 2005, and 6.1 percent to $39.2 billion in 2006. The Japanese market will grow 17.5 percent to $35.8 billion in 2003, increase 14.1 percent to $41.9 billion in 2004, 6.5 percent to $43.5 billion in 2005, and 4.9 percent in 2006 to $45.6 billion. Of all the semiconductor regions, the Asia-Pacific region will experience the strongest growth in the next few years. It is forecast to grow 12.1 percent to $57.3 billion in 2003, 20.9 percent to $69.3 billion in 2004, and 9.4 percent to $75.8 billion in 2005. In 2006, Asia Pacific will report growth of 7.9 percent to $81.8 billion.