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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jt47319 who wrote (17324)	6/12/2003 12:33:54 AM
From: Lizzie Tudor	Respond to of 19219

In the trading environment, I really don't see the overwhelming sentiment as indicated by AAII. I read multiple newsletters, visit different chat sites, and so forth. By far, the majority seem more bearish than bullish. Top calling is a favorite past time. May be they're right, but they haven't been so far. Individual investor sentiment is still extremely bearish in silicon valley. I don't just mean the small time individuals but also the executives and big money people. They aren't in stocks yet.

To: jt47319 who wrote (17324)	6/12/2003 1:11:12 AM
From: bobby beara	Respond to of 19219

Unfortunately, the Art of Contrarian Sentiment is exactly that, an Art<<<< My favorite sentiment artist, Larry McMillan, sezs sentiment is right until it's wrong, there are a number of others that have written books about it that agree. true contrarian sentiment events are fairly rare events and are low probability gambles, for people trying to fade the trend. the only thing in the end is price, price moving up means demand is in charge, price moving down means supply is in charge, trying to pick tops or bottoms based on a plethora of sentiment statistics is getting out of the range of probability anaylisis and into the realm of gambling.

To: jt47319 who wrote (17324)	6/12/2003 1:57:02 AM
From: Baton	Respond to of 19219

Excellent, excellent post. Thank you. Baton

To: jt47319 who wrote (17324)	6/12/2003 9:40:38 AM
From: dvdw©	Respond to of 19219

Couldnt have said it better myself. Love the awareness being shown for the importance of measuring money flow using a wide range of labels. This bear has been run, rationalized, spun on the basis of this line from your nearly perfect post; " Votes are cast with dollars, not op-ed pieces pounded on coffee stained keyboards with stubby fat appendages or the vacuous talking heads on CNBC." With you all the way.

To: jt47319 who wrote (17324)	6/12/2003 12:17:38 PM
From: J.T.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19219

In the end, Contrarian Sentiment is inexact and hardly even qualifies as Technical Analysis. Give me HARD EMPIRICAL evidence as to when one side's supply of money is exhausted. That should be goal of Contrarian Sentiment. Agree. The only way to utilize contrary sentiment to stack the deck in your favor to make money is to monitor this data as developed by a persistent trend over time. Monitoring and writing down Rydex total assets every day is the tool I use. But that is only half the equation. You must wait for a key reversal day against that dominant primary trend. That key reversal day must be measured in the form of what buyers and sellers are DOING. - A market measurement of supply and demand of stocks on that given day. It is one clue to help identify when selling has exhausted itself, when buyers are stepping up to the plate etc... There are services out there that measure daily action of buyers and sellers. When that key reversal day unfolds... Contrary sentiment data must then corroborated by their disbelief in that reversal day and further conviction that the current dominant trend will continue. Measuring daily Rydex total assets is the purest form of measuring money in terms of what traders are DOING. It is hot money. Money that is in play RIGHT NOW. A second key reversal day must confirm the first reversal day was no fluke. A backtest if you will. And the same process identified above must be measured critically. Detail analysis. Contrary sentiment analysis is one tool in a tool box. It is not the holy grail. Neither is any other form of technical, fundamental, elliott wave or any other market tool in a tool box the holy grail. Any tool must be confirmed by PRICE. Indexes are a big picture snapshot of price. Any form of analysis should be utilized only as a guide to make money. And is one trying to make money in the short, intermediate or long term? Day trade, swing trade, position trade? etc... I believe position trading is your best chance for success if utilizing only this tool. If you only had this one tool (Contrary sentiment analysis) in the tool box to use to make money, you would only get at best a few buy or sell signals per year. Contrary sentiment analysis works best only at extremes. Not only do you need a key reversal day off the main trend to identify how contrary sentiment can work to your advantage, but you need subsequent confirmation to validate it. Contrary sentiment works best when disbelief persists against subsequent reversal days against that dominant current trend. And measured by what traders and or investors are DOING is more important to me than what others are SAYING. Best, JT