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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TimF who wrote (101231)	6/12/2003 6:16:35 PM
From: Bilow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

Hi twfowler; Most of your comments are useless. For example: "The Vietnamese communists where pretty fanatic in many cases, inspired by both an intense nationalism and for some of them communist ideology." Yes, the Vietnamese were "pretty fanatic". No, the Vietnamese are nowhere near as fanatic as the Arabs. Not even close. The Arabs strap explosives to the bodies of their own children and send them to blow up women and children. While there may have been a little of this sort of thing going on in 'nam, it is the Arabs that have made this sort of tactic famous. Re: "Here you have something of a point but in Vietnam we faced organized resistance ..." Go read our own generals. They'll tell you that the resistance is "organized". Re: "... and an enemy capable of large coordinated attacks." Eight weeks into a guerilla war and you're already complacent about what the enemy is unable to do. It takes about 6 months to organize a guerilla resistance, and even then it's highly unlikely that they'd be strong enough to fight big battles like that. The 6 month delay is something that I told you guys about before the war, and it is verified by US military documents published before the war. Re: "We faced a national army that the political situation wouldn't enable us to defeat decisively." Already we're facing guerilla soldiers from Syria, Jordan and God knows where else. And the absence of a direct analog to the North Vietnamese Army is more than fully compensated by the absence of a South Vietnamese Army on our side. Besides, this is just the beginning. If we stay in Iraq, this thing will go on forever. Eventually the political situation could very likely allow quasi official soldiery from other Arab states, or even Iran, to assist the guerillas in Iraq. Given our President's inclination to diplomatically step on his dick, you can't expect our allies to pull our nuts out, as far as muscling Iran or Syria. Re: "We also faced an enemy that had tons of outside help including help from a rival superpower." Jesus weeps! We're losing one soldier a day and that cost is already expected to be in excess of what we can politically withstand. How many tons of RPGs do you think that Iraq already has lying in people's basements? It is a well known military axiom that guerilla warriors need essentially no military supplies. In other words, no "rival superpower" is needed. For that matter, our assistance to the Afghan guerilla warriors was minuscule, and was sufficient to defeat a Soviet Union capable of far more brutal use of power than we are. Our losses in Vietnam were about 5,000 deaths per year, or maybe 15 per day. The level of munitions required to support that level of violence is minuscule. And there isn't a snowball's chance in hell that the American public is going to support a return of the draft. Not a chance. Re: "All in a country that was proud of its tradition of fighting off foreign powers that sought to impose their will ..." BWAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!! LOL!!! BWAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!! Sorry for laughing, but that's what they said about Afghanistan and Iraq. Hell, the US has that tradition. In fact, look around. Find me a country that doesn't have a long tradition of fighting against foreign powers that sought to impose their will, LOL. Fighting is human nature. We all do it. It's fun. Re: "... and had much more rugged and difficult terrain." Wrong. The most difficult terrain for the US Army is cities, and with the larger population, Iraq has plenty of those. Our city problems in Vietnam were largely controlled by the South Vietnamese government. It is extremely difficult to prosecute military operations in cities without inflaming the locals. Re: "In Iraq we face, looting and crime, a few small scattered bands of guerilla enemies (and to the extent that some are Bathist and some are Islamic fundamentalists they are also each other's enemy), and an occasional small terrorist attack. There is no large scale organization, no ability to mount something like the attack at Khe Shan, or the Tet offensive, or to stage an armed resistance as strong as that in the Ia Drang Valley." Give it time. Like I said, 6 months is about what it takes to mount a guerilla resistance. And even then, those large scale offensives you're talking about, (like Tet), were disasters for the Communists. That's a well known fact to any conservative, I thought, LOL. Go read the US military documents on counterinsurgency. They make it very clear that the kind of stuff you're talking about only show up in the late stages of a guerilla war. Read chapter 2 of this official US Military Field Manual: SUPPORT FOR INSURGENCY AND COUNTERINSURGENCY ... a. Terrain. *The guerrilla prefers to continue to live in his own home.* He lives in camps if security does not permit him to live at home. ... ... 2-5. GUERRILLA TACTICS Guerrilla warfare is one characteristic of an insurgency. The guerrilla is the combat element to the insurgency. *When guerrilla forces first become operational, they usually engage in limited or small-scale operations. If they reach more sophisticated levels of organization, equipment, and training, larger operations using more conventional tactics may be expected. ... ... adtdl.army.mil I'd quote more, but it is an interesting enough document that my post would grow too long. Suffice it to say that these few quotes already prove that the official US military doctrine is not to expect the kind of "Tet offensive" bullshit that you're talking about. And that concept of terrain being so important for guerillas, well it's just an excuse. The fact is that official US military doctrine does not list terrain as being that important for guerillas. It just don't matter as much as other factors: ... 2-2. ENVIRONMENT* The environment in which the insurgent operates must be examined from more than a geographical point of view. While terrain and climate are important factors, *the political, economical, and sociological environments are vital.* ... In Iraq, the political factor is that the locals think we're there to steal their oil. The economical factor is that all the 16-yearolds are unemployed and have time on their hands. The sociological factor is that they think we're the same Christian infidel, LOL. You really couldn't dream up a more vicious guerilla war to fight. Read the literature, then come back with your ideas. -- Carl Another appropriate US military link: adtdl.army.mil