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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: cpabobp who wrote (17219)	6/12/2003 10:17:27 AM
From: Spekulatius	Respond to of 78741

RE: VICL or any other "below cash" stocks While I agree that investing in biotechs below cash may represent a safety net I still think that you need to look at the underlying technology and the chance of success. With biotechs, the cash will be spend sooner or later and if the R&D is wasted on unpromising projects the company will be out of business. As for VICL, I do not like their ?naked DNA technique ; their progress in the clinic is very slow and it is quite questionable if ever anything will be marketable. The only silverlining is a HIV project with Merck which uses their technique as part of the cocktail but i doubt that the small royalties will be sufficient to sustain VICL if this project will be successful.

To: cpabobp who wrote (17219)	6/12/2003 5:07:12 PM
From: Paul Senior	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78741

cpabobp: As for me, I'm buying these below-cash biotechs as speculations. I want the cash burn to last at least a couple of years. That way, I'm assured there's very little possibility of these companies going kaput for that time period. My bet is that going forward, at some point we'll see the sector become more in favor than currently, and that several of these stocks will see good stock market gains: 1. Through announcements of joint ventures with major pharmas (e.g. CRXL) 2. Through investor excitement in some of these companies moving product from PhaseI to PhaseII and/or to from PhaseII to PhaseIII. 3. Through media buzz of new technologies or new drug possibilities these companies offer. 4. Through internal restructurings. 5. Through the current bull market in biotechs stock prices - if it continues. ---------------------------------------- Looking at VICL's stock's history, finance.yahoo.com we see that's VICL's been around awhile, and that its stock has been subject to a short period of great enthusiasm. I am hoping at least a couple of stocks in my basket can repeat some of this enthusiasm or some retracement in performance (before they run out of money, or I run out of patience or confidence.) So far, I am seeing acceptable results. My bets do not depend on these companies being or becoming profitable. I'm not too concerned about what to buy. The issue for me will be when to sell. Paul Senior Missed the short window to buy VICL near lows. Will try again tomorrow.

To: cpabobp who wrote (17219)	6/12/2003 10:16:18 PM
From: Steve168	Respond to of 78741

RE: VICL or any other "below cash" stocks cpabobp, The below cash stocks definitely have risk. Actually all stocks have risk. Enron was the best performing S&P500 stock, cover story of Time magazine, most analysts rated a buy, most funds owned it, before bankruptcy in the following year. Paul Senior explained well, we are betting on that the cash allow VICL to continue to run for couple years, during that time the company will develop drugs, stock will fluctuate, if any drug get approval or near approval, it will fly to $20. We have a reasonable chance. I am also using a "basket" approach to allow margin of safety. In a 10 stock basket, if one of the below cash play turned out successful (my SINA already did that, it is a 10 bagger in a year), one bankrupted in a year, 8 others broke even, I still have a 80% return for my "below cash basket of 10 stocks". Warren Buffet said people either get the "value approach" on the first time or never like it all their life. I guess most people on this board are value investors. But we all have different ways to measure "value". People either like my way or not. I have been happy with it. Over the years I learned not to believe any "analyst estimates on future growth". I believe in cold hard cash plus couple years opportunity window.