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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Carragher who wrote (17225)	6/12/2003 2:14:12 PM
From: Larry S.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78774

I was just going to post the same thought. 3 year chart: stockcharts.com[h,a]daclyiay[df][pb200!b50][vc60][iut!Lh14,3!La12,26,9]&pref=G - there will be some ugly stuff coming out, but how bad can it be????? the deep value guys i'm sure have it on their radar screen. one problem, it is already so widely held by institutions, that there could be many more waves of selling. larry

To: John Carragher who wrote (17225)	6/12/2003 4:40:42 PM
From: Bob Rudd	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78774

FRE: <<. is this now a value stock?>> Hard to say. I'm no expert on GSE's, but here are some issues off the cuff: FRE like many lending entities is a bit of a black box with significant derivative exposures that no outsider will really be able nail down...SO you have to trust management which the recent firings have brought into question. Crisis events involving entities with high debt levels tend to roll out in stages: The event causes greater scrutiny by regulators [We've seen investigations come from this already, the results of which will be awhile], journalists [several articles, looking for dirt], shorts, analysts [Most have been favorable given volume of paper Freddy throws off] Credit agencies [This is a biggy given big debt levels]. Then there's the regulators: A big risk is a shift in policy away from the beneficial position the GSE's currently hold...perhaps moves to level the playing field and diversify exposure so it's not just Freddy and Fannie...although I doubt such a move would come about until things settle down. It's a complex picture with a lot of moving parts. So at this point, I'd say FRE might be an interesting speculative bet, rather than an undervalued value investment given the level of uncertainty. Given this uncertainty, one guidepost is technical chart analysis. I'm looking at around 38 as a prior support area on longer term [10 year] charts.