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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Return to Sender who wrote (10089)	6/12/2003 2:30:30 PM
From: michael97123	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95530

RTS, My view is that the market is bumping up to resistance at S&P1000. Perhaps its the first of the big psychological numbers that are out there. S&P 1K, Dow 10K and naz 2K. If there is a clear move thru it, you may be saying the same thing a few hundred points higher. We may have reached a critical point in this rally. There is alot of liquidity out there. Interest rate cut imminent. Fed buying treasurys=printing money. Dollar is weak is good for exports. Large deficits inflationary. Tax cut and gas price fall puts more money in consumer hands. I dont think this rally is ready to end just yet but i as most of you know have been wrong before. Mike

To: Return to Sender who wrote (10089)	6/12/2003 3:02:20 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95530

RE: "...how much real fundamental improvement has taken place?" The last earnings season seemed to indicate that "real fundamental improvement" had taken place. Revenues had become more stable and more companies were seeing sequential quarterly improvements. Prior efforts to lower break even revenue levels had stopped much of the losses and negative cash flow. Companies were prepared for the next recovery and the signs are that the economy will continue to improve slowly. The recent rally played on the idea of fundamental improvement, but was not strongly tied to it. There was much anticipation of the effects a robust recovery might have on some of these tech companies, but not enough careful examination of the relationship between current valuation and future expectations. Now, we have a correction due to technical factors and analysts downgrading based on "valuation". This is very healthy and I don't think it indicates any unusually gloomy future market scenario. We will be getting a host of corporate details through the current warning season and into the quarterly earnings season. As 2H '03 and CY '04 expectations become clearer, the market levels will adjust. The big run we have had since October '02 has had a large element of volatility about the bottom to it. As such, not only the cream has risen. This is a good time for long term investors to take advantage of "all the boats" rising and move to higher quality companies. Look at expected market growth, market share, and competitive advantages (significant barriers to entry and sustainable competitive advantages).