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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (10093)	6/13/2003 12:37:14 AM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95530

>The big run we have had since October '02 has had a large element of volatility about the bottom to it. As such, not only the cream has risen. This is a good time for long term investors to take advantage of "all the boats" rising and move to higher quality companies. Look at expected market growth, market share, and competitive advantages (significant barriers to entry and sustainable competitive advantages).< The problem with that reasoning Cary is that it simply does not allow for the fact that even some of the best run companies like ALTR and MXIM are subject to profit taking. Sure the creme has risen. So have a lot stocks associated with very poorly run companies stocks as well. I find it strange that we are discussing a correction which has yet to really happen. But it must because extreme levels of bullishness have always led to a market decline much greater than we have seen so far. As of now only two stocks have lost buy signals in the BPNDX. It earlier this week showing 91 stocks out 100 with buy signals. I will say once again that the highest reading ever was in 2000 before the bubble burst. The reading then was 93! Not only is the BPNDX almost as high as it was in the bubble days that but all kinds of other sentiment readings recently have been heralding a potential top in the market as well. Now the BPNDX has fallen two to 89 from the recent high of 91 so maybe a correction is beginning. The two stocks that lost buy signals were ALTR and MXIM. I don't doubt for one second that these are higher quality better run companies than virtually anything else out there in the semiconductor industry (except for some of the others you also favor) but when these stocks begin to fall, and perhaps they have just begun to fall, then all the troops will follow. Of course I could be wrong again and these stocks could rally back up to buy signals. AMAT did that recently. Regardless, the argument becomes not a question of what stock to buy for a long term investor but rather when? I like all the stocks you follow so closely. Sure I short them once in a while but I still believe they are fabulous companies. I want to be long these stocks. But not now. I say when there is this much bullishness in the market at the very least we are due a more substantial pullback than we have seen. At the worst we may see another selling spree like we had on Black Monday in 1987. If not for the trading curbs in place I would be very scared of just such an occurrence right now. This market is still just a house of cards awaiting a real business led fundamental recovery that has yet to lend any support to it at all. RtS