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Strategies & Market Trends : World Outlook -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Don Green who wrote (2206)	6/13/2003 9:14:22 AM
From: Les H	Respond to of 49281

Asia faces weak dollar, strong China riskwire.eiu.com an excerpt re: EU/USD The Economist Intelligence Unit expects the depreciation in the US dollar against the European currency to continue, with the exchange rate moving to US$1.20:euro1 in the second half of 2003. But there is a significant risk that the currency will move further, to US$1.35:euro1 or beyond, and the chances of this happening seem to be increasing--we have raised the probability of a dollar rout from 30% to 40%. A substantial decline against the yen is also a possibility--perhaps to Y105:US$1 or beyond. Japan's exporters would take a severe hit if the yen went much above Y115:US$1. A recent survey of companies by the Cabinet Office showed the average break-even point for Japan's exporters is Y114.9:US$1. If the yen began to soar, the rest of Asia's currencies, which often move in line with Japan's currency, would probably follow it up. Although it would take some months to appear in the data, a rapid fall-off in export growth would be inevitable.