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Gold/Mining/Energy : Precious and Base Metal Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: crustyoldprospector who wrote (12420)	6/14/2003 4:53:47 PM
From: jimsioi	Respond to of 39344

crusty, on the COTS It would appear with the open interest published on Friday for Thursday for GOLD (192,449 contracts) that there was a further decline in open contracts of about 9,000 on Wednesday and Thursday. This likely equates to a decline in the Commercial short interest a further 10K contracts, assuming they added longs as they did in the period just reported as well as covering shorts. If the above is correct Commercial Net shorts likely decline to 84K contracts as of Friday. This amount takes the amount short down a good amount from the extreme recently set and towards the rising base line, if you will, of net shorts held during the move up from the 250 lows which started with the commercials net long. Non manipulative positions (real commercial hedging) could account for this rising base. Something closer to 70K net short would make me feel more comfortable that the metal was well set from merely a COT perspective to rally. COTs cftc.gov COTs graphed sharelynx.net If the dollar were to fall below 92 and spike down, Gold indeed would be expected to rally. If the commercials were to further reduce shorts on such a rally in Gold - well, we wouldn't be in Kansas anymore. I'm a little skeptical in that regard. As with there normal pattern, I'd expect the commercials to re-institute shorts on a rally back toward 360-70, again capping the bounce. A check of the 154 highs for the HUI looks increasing possible...if the dollar fades and certainly IF there is further fall out from the Freddie Mac episode. PPO and DMI positive on the weekly and a long way from over bought. stockcharts.com[h,a]wbcaynay[df][pc40!b08!f][iut!Ll14!Le12,26,9!Le12,26,9!Lya7,14,28!Lb14]&pref=G