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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TheStockFairy who wrote (11204)	6/16/2003 9:52:15 AM
From: J. P.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 306849

I'm thinking the creditors like CFC are the better short play than builders like KBH. In fact, I think CFC is going to be one of the best shorting opportunities of the next wave. But I also think the current wave is going to crest for quite awhile yet. I'm thinking well into next year. At it's core my premise is that interest rates can only go to zero (and we are close, mortgages can only go so low before the spread is gone). Once they do, the game is over for CFC. Once interest rates go up, the game is over for CFC. Either way, the game is over. This was a once in a lifetime dream scenario for them. If I was an executive there I'd be selling like a madman. With builders they can hang on a bit longer, there is overhang, and there will be price persistance with homes. Am I totally off base here? What am I missing?