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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Return to Sender who wrote (10134)	6/15/2003 8:08:56 PM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95530

Intel: on the outs? 14 Jun 2003 dai.multexinvestor.com Shares of Intel (INTC) dropped more than 3 percent on Friday after analysts at Deutsche Bank downgraded the stock from Buy to Hold. The downgrade came in response to INTC's strong price performance over the past couple of months. According to Deutsche Bank, shares of the semiconductor giant have reached their price target of $22 and there is no catalyst on the near horizon that can be expected to push the price any higher. (Click here to see a detailed description of INTC's business.) When I wrote about Intel a month ago, the stock had risen about 25 percent from its February low. At the time, I cited concerns about Intel's ability to expand in a market that it already dominates completely. Since then, little has changed, but INTC has risen another 20 percent in the midst of the overall market's bull run. (Click here to see the historical-price chart.) Analysts at Morningstar put the fair value for Intel at $15, saying that further growth will have to come at the expense of lower profit margins—currently, the firm's margins are well above those of the industry—against stiffer competition. Deutsche Bank added that current forecasts in the semiconductor industry as a whole are more subject to downside risk than upside risk; DB "expects a period of retrenchment (or at least consolidation) through the slower summer months." What do the numbers say? Intel's price-to-earnings ratio, at 47, is awfully high—although it's still below the average for the semiconductor industry—but if earnings estimates are correct, the projected P/E is a bit more reasonable. As the stock price has risen, institutional ownership has dropped and short interest has increased, so it looks like some of the investing pros are thinking along the same lines as Deutsche Bank. On the plus side, Intel has impressive management-effectiveness ratios that are well above those for the rest of the industry. (Click here for an explanation of management-effectiveness ratios.) Intel continues to dominate the semiconductor market, so the company's fortunes are basically the same as those of the industry as a whole. If you expect a wave of tech spending sometime soon, as people and companies finally make long overdue upgrades to computer systems, INTC might still have a big upside. But if you think the boom is over and tech spending will be a steady trickle from now on, then you might want to look elsewhere.

To: Return to Sender who wrote (10134)	6/16/2003 9:42:36 AM
From: TI2, TechInvestorToo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95530

<Beyond profits, the downturn has also cost the industry thousands of jobs as companies try to align their businesses with reduced revenues. In November 2000, the chip business in the U.S. employed 309,000, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. In March, that number fell to 248,000. ``It's been total carnage,'' said Risto Puhakka, a vice president of VLSI Research, a market research firm in San Jose.> ...hhhmmmm AMAt went from 20000 to 12000. Were they really 13% of all job losses in that time frame????!!!!! I don't think so. ti2