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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (44)	6/15/2003 9:04:45 PM
From: Silver Super Bull	Respond to of 110194

There is an interesting interview in today's Barron's (p.22) with Ned Davis. He makes some interesting points with regard to the debt situation and interest rates. There is a very interesting graph showing debt levels compared to GDP. Also, elsewhere in Barron's they were mentioning that yields on the various Treasuries haven't been this low since the 50s, and that the new consensus is an interest rate cut of 1/2 point, resulting in .75%. DB

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (44)	6/16/2003 7:57:42 PM
From: Bridge Player	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 110194

<< this new concept called "jobless recovery"? >> Productivity improvements (new technologies in both hardware and software enable companies to perform operations with fewer employees) plus moving jobs offshore (cheaper labor costs in other countries enable companies to reduce their costs) plus excess capacity means companies can cut back on capital expenditures thus reducing cash outlays thus increasing their profits plus extremely low interest rates means that interest costs are very low compared to 50-year historic averages thus enabling companies to replace old high-cost debt with new low-cost debt and in addition enables more small businesses to get started plus immense amounts of money on the sidelines now starting to move into the stock market which improves consumer assets enabling them to borrow even more money on their homes which continue to go up in value plus weaker dollar which enables domestic companies to compete better in international markets thus increasing their shipments abroad plus lower taxes as well as tax rebates thus enabling consumers to spend more thus increasing demand and giving a little more pricing power to producers plus a Republican administration that promises even more tax cuts in the future in addition to loosening regulations on business plus the psychological improvement in consumer sentiment (just watch the numbers next month) resulting from stock market improvement plus huge immigration from Mexico resulting in lower costs for labor in this country plus incredibly large injections of money into the economy (to forestall the feared "deflation" monster) that has to go somewhere plus the incessant drumbeat of all the talking heads that insist that the market bottomed last October and the recent rise is forecasting an "improved economy" in the second half (what, should you bet against the experts?). What is it that you don't understand?

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (44)	6/17/2003 1:32:03 PM
From: RealMuLan	Respond to of 110194

>>In addition, I wonder if the public employees associations are going to be screaming bloody murder soon with all state budget problems.<< They can scream all they want, but most of state gov. forbids their state employees to go on a strike.<g> Don't you see thousands of state employees had already been laid off? (TX-10,000, Connecticut->3,000, WI-2,900, 50,000 k-12 teachers in CA alone, to name a few, and thousands lay-off to come in the next 2 years). Yes, they are unionized workers, but seems irrelevant in this round of hard time<ng>