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Pastimes : The Justa and Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: marc ultra who wrote (2587)	6/15/2003 11:49:53 PM
From: Lone Ranger	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10065

marc, Agreed. I've posted a couple of times before that at trend changes the crowd is wrong and that indicators that worked in the bear wouldn't work now. Glad Bob agrees with me <g>.

To: marc ultra who wrote (2587)	6/16/2003 8:22:42 PM
From: marc ultra	Respond to of 10065

Is it different now? More precisely are fundamentals different enough at the moment that sentiment indicators won't get in the way until the cyclical bull peaks. Forget about trains, radio, the internet and other manias. Are things fundamentally different for the moment as to make the stock market so compelling that we can have a powerful cyclical bull now that will surprise most and will leave reluctant sidelined investors licking wounds wounds from the megabear along with the bears behind? I don't know of any time in history that we had the Fed flooding the system with liquidity as protection against deflatiion when we seem to be in a period of economic growth albeit still slow, with jobs waiting to catch up in the future. At the same time we have a big fiscal stimulus. It would have seen insanity in the past for the Fed to be talking about cutting rates even further to record lows at a time like this, not to mention potential maneuvers aimed directly at long rates and the market. We have been through one of the longest most severe bears in history which could make the perverse market now wanting to screw all those who didn't jump back in at an early time. If we assume we're in a secular bear than those who don't make the profits now in the cyclical bull could be missing out or have missed out on an urgent opportunity. I expect the public will be moving in from their zero real rate MM's in force by the time we reach the top of this cyclical bull and it's time to exit. I think very few of them were heavily invested in stocks near the bottom in March. Bob has been making near flawless calls lately with his long term model so it seems appropriate to follow it. The caveat of course is nobody's perfect as seen with Bob's short term bear rally call fiasco. I choose to separate that from his long term model calls in my decisions. If correct, I wonder how many people will look back at the fiscal and monetary fundamentals and wonder how they missed this rare brief time in history Marc