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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: excardog who wrote (23835)6/16/2003 4:54:34 PM
From: jim_p  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 206202
 
Scott,

For those of us who have been around long enough, this is nothing new.

Back in the late 70's they were building LNG plants as fast as they could. NG was never going to fall below 5-7.00 per Mcf (in 1970's $) and the US was running out of NG forever. Here we are 25 years later.

It only took several years for the LNG plants to go bankrupt because they all signed long term contracts to buy LNG at high prices (3.50-5.00 per Mcf) and when supply exceeded demand, NG fell down closer to $1.00 per Mcf.

Well here we are again. LNG plants being built. NG never going to fall below $4.50 (the cost to import LNG). Spot prices in the winter over $10.00 per Mcf.

If the markets really believed today that NG prices will never fall below $4.50, we would have new rigs being built and once we get back over 2, 3 or even 4,000 rigs running we would be right back where we were in the late 70's and early 80's.

Never say never. There is plenty of NG in NA, it's all a function of price and perception.

Jim