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Politics : Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: lurqer who wrote (20533)	6/16/2003 7:01:49 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 89467

an excellent article by Saville on money supply & velocity money velocity has slowed sharply, a terrible sign usually that means a recession is upon us is posting such an article a waste of time on this WMD thread ??? gold-eagle.com Will higher money supply growth help? by Steve Saville clips: rather than interpreting the fall in the GDP/M2 ratio as a signal that we need even higher money-supply growth a more logical line of thinking would be as follows: The 16.8% increase in M2 money supply over the past 2 years has had only a minimal effect on economic growth, so the problem clearly isn't a lack of money. Higher money-supply growth is therefore not likely to make things better. >>>>> it is a mistake to think that deflation is the problem. Deflation wasn't the problem in the 1930s and it is not the problem now. The problem in the 1930s, and the problem now, is that there was a massive asset price bubble fed by an even more massive credit bubble. Once you have allowed a massive credit bubble to form there is no 'inflating your way out of trouble'. The US money supply has expanded at a rapid rate over the past 2 years and all that has been achieved is that an even bigger problem has been pushed into the future. Read the interview with 89 year-old investment legend Seth Glickenhaus in last week's Barrons magazine, because he says it better than we do. To paraphrase Mr Glickenhaus, all the Fed does when it tries to inflate its way out of the mess it helped create is cannibalise the future. It seems as though the chorus clamouring for higher money-supply growth wants the Fed to cannibalise the future at an even faster rate. / jim

To: lurqer who wrote (20533)	6/20/2003 3:00:06 PM
From: Sully-	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 89467

Well said lurq...... This should be another indicator when you consider how far SOX equities have run lately....... North American Semiconductor Equipment Industry Posts May 2003 Book-to-Bill Ratio of 0.89 SAN JOSE, Calif., June 17, 2003 -- North American-based manufacturers of semiconductor equipment posted $751 million in orders in May 2003 (three-month average basis) and a book-to-bill ratio of 0.89, according to the May 2003 Express Report published today by Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International (SEMI). A book-to-bill of 0.89 means that $89 worth of new orders were received for every $100 of product billed for the month. <font size=5>The three-month average of worldwide bookings in May 2003 was $751 million. The bookings figure is one percent below the revised April 2003 level of $757 million and 32 percent below the $1.11 billion in orders posted in May 2002. The three-month average of worldwide billings in May 2003 was $840 million. The billings figure is even with the revised April 2003 level and 3.5 percent below the May 2002 billings level of $870 million. "The outlook for front-end equipment remains sluggish, suggesting a single-digit recovery this year, although some analysts remain hopeful for the possibility of 10-15 percent billings growth in 2003," said Stanley Myers, president and CEO of SEMI. "Conditions are more positive for the test, assembly and packaging segment, which continues to post modest gains and could experience a double-digit recovery this year."<font size=3> The SEMI book-to-bill is a ratio of three-month moving average bookings to three-month moving average billings for the North American semiconductor equipment industry. Billings and bookings figures are in millions of U.S. dollars. semi.org!OpenDocument

To: lurqer who wrote (20533)	6/23/2003 2:05:52 PM
From: NOW	Respond to of 89467

well, yes the Nikkei had that long trading range, and the inevitable was and still has been postponed. But the synchronous nature of downtturn was missing then....

To: lurqer who wrote (20533)	6/30/2003 12:24:59 PM
From: lurqer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 89467

Trading Range? When I wrote the Mid 2003 post, that this post is in response to, some two weeks ago, I was comfortable calling for a summer trading range and a low test in the fall. In many ways, that's still my preferred scenario. Unfortunately, it seems to be preferred by many others also. An almost identical scenario was presented by Bollinger on CNBC. This past weekend, I watched Rukeyser. Now everyone knows to be bullish on Rukeyser’s show (or you’re gone like Gail Dudack). But when you listened to the specific predictions, each of ole Lou’s four guests, was predicting a trading range. In the past two weeks, I’ve lost count of how many have predicted a high on the Dow of just below 10,000, and, depending on the bullishness of the prognosticator, a low between the high 7000s and high 8000s. When the market gets too much agreement, it’s time to shake it up a bit. So far, I’m still in the Range camp. Just expecting both high and low tests of the range to be more “sever”. Need to shake off a few riders. JMO lurqer