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Strategies & Market Trends : Winter in the Great White North -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tyc:> who wrote (4732)	6/16/2003 8:45:14 PM
From: marcos	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 8273

'I cannot understand why Canadian businesses should be more valuable than American business just because the American currency is weak.' First, we too are in these Americas [look at the map!-g-] Second, it's not really like everything started off equal a few months ago .... canadian companies have never gotten valuations equivalent with their US comparables, they've always been at a discount, and it gets exaggerated at times, like during the tech bubble ... Nortel got to cdn124/usd80 or so, it was still a lot cheap than Cisco, using what they called then 'metrics' ..... when you buy canadian you buy cheaper, ceteris paribus .... this only became slightly less so during the last few weeks This effect is why, with the miners, i'm a lot more interested in the stories that are not yet co-listed on Amex, but who will be before long ..... Miramar mae.to may now be on its way to benefitting from its Amex listing, it hasn't yet .... the sooner Alamos agi.v gets its 20F filed and the process of Amex listing begun, the happier i'll be That's a good way to play the usd, xsp.to ... buying the s&p in loonies, i'd forgotten about that To buy the gold shares in loonies around now, i think that's the trade of the month .... seasonality be damned, we haven't gotten the seasonal lift this winter/spring, so i don't see why we'd get a deep summer trough .... the non-golds will not run long in the manner they are now, when they falter the golds are going to look pretty good to Ms Market

To: tyc:> who wrote (4732)	6/16/2003 10:36:35 PM
From: Cogito Ergo Sum	Respond to of 8273

Hi Tyke, Oh but if it made sense wouldn't it be nice. I wondered about the gold stocks vs appreciating loonie last fall and this winter. Now to make matters worse US markets were strong in part due to the bonus of the strong greenback. Then I hear foreigners will sell US equities in droves due to US currency devaluation. Now I also thought hey! strong loonie ought be great for our stocks (well maybe was for the CanRoys), but... now I hear American stocks look attractively cheap because the greenback is down (of course that's trying to call a bottom) and of course our markets have not exactly flourished... OK now add SARS to the mix. Toronto is hurting. As hated as it is ( ;o) ) by ROC it sure is an important engine... I was expecting our loonie to rise, maybe to 80.. Now I think the gov will either hold the line or even walk it down a tad.. BTW as confused as I am I've been accumulating gold stocks at a leisurely pace for a while now. Nothing spectacular. I don't figure I'll end up way overweight like last year but... regards Kastel