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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (6291)	6/23/2003 8:42:04 AM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25522

HI Brian, It appears this Sars scenario HAS had a negative impact in chip makers and consequently HAD AN EVEN BIGGER HICKUP WITH THE SCE SECTOR. I've always discounted this event - thinking it was just a short term blip. I still think that - but now am beginning to realize it as the oportunistic event that will provide the "expected final shakeout". As the health and utilization of chip makers becomes apparent - the last delay will be what creates a "behind the curve"lag that starts another wave of investment. Let's face it chip makers need a shortage to get strength in pricing.Once there is strength in pricing everybody wants to play catch up yesterday. How did Rogers put it "when they want equipment - They all want equipment". Hopefully this deferment can provide the delay necessary to jump start a belief of urgency in new technology investment. If a delay in investment coupled with: A weak dollar Low interest rates Tax cuts Monetary printing stymilus Can't build demand - then it is time to go to the farm.ggg Go back and check out your favorite SCE stock - they all ahve final shakeouts.The last one incredibly occurs just before a recovery kicks in. My favorite (Cohu) Dipped in October 16 th of 1998 to an intraday low of 12.It also had a final shakeout on July 25,1996 - this low had also occurred in the latter part of 1995. These stocks get false starts as investors over anxiouslt buy them anticipating the turn around.If the investment wave is premature another negative story reduces the optimism and the stocks retest lows - which introduces the same low prices that long term investors enjoyed at their last major accumulation price point.These are the perfect buys - most often just barely violated - to create a final surge of weak sellers - just before the big price runup. 98 it was the Asian Contagion - 03 it will be SARS. Ironically similar isn't it?? In both cases those long and optimistic have been all but stymied as the constant flow of negative news has ground out optimism. Oh Whoa is me - This business is never gonna be anything any more.ggg Look around - laptops everywhere.Wi-Fi's are exploding - heck I've even got a choice of broadband now. Satellite TV and internet on boats,RV's and now cars. This world we live in is indeed using more chips. Now if the last scam can just give me one final shakeout. Buy on the Dips and prepare to retire after this one gives us a final distribution in 04/05 - or better yet give us a nice consolidation in between and then Cary's time frame will work. But first just give me the dip.GG BUY THE DIP. P.S. Thanks to Don for hie wonderful work over the weekend - which showed my favorite ( Cohu ) as having sucked wind and declined in price almost the most. During this last decline they've sold real estate and consolidated their entire operation to one location.I'm sure the news will be bad,as these guys will want to hold onto as much of the real estate gain as they can vs paying taxes. Backend is growing faster than the front end and the price of the stock is going down. Quite a disconnect and to me an obvious set up to the expected final shake out. Hopefully there's more to come.Fridays afterhours volume was huge and may well have done its thing as the quarter is now over. Time will tell. Bob