SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Politics : Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (20537)6/17/2003 10:28:09 AM
From: stockman_scott  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 89467
 
Short Supply of Natural Gas Raises Economic Worries

By SIMON ROMERO
The New York Times
nytimes.com

HOUSTON, June 16 — The economy has been cool, and so has the spring in much of the country. Nonetheless, the United States is facing its most severe shortage of natural gas in a quarter-century.

Industries like fertilizer and ammonia makers, which use gas to produce their goods, are already laying off workers. And experts warn that a warming trend, in the economy or the weather, could send prices spiking for the electricity that cools homes and runs every sort of business.

"You would have thought that the last big upsurge in prices a couple of years ago was a tremendous wake-up call," said Gwyn Morgan, chief executive of EnCana, a Canadian company that is the largest independent natural gas producer and storage operator in North America. "But for most people it was not."

The market manipulation by companies like Enron has been blamed for much of the price surge of 2000 and 2001, which led to brownouts in parts of California and price spikes for electricity in much of the West and some of the Northeast. But now, like then, most analysts agree, the basic law of supply and demand is at work.

With natural gas promoted as a cleaner-burning fuel than oil or coal, nearly all the electric plants built since 1998 are designed to be fired mainly by gas. So demand is up. And while drilling has increased about 25 percent in the last year, much of it has been confined to old, overworked basins that are not as productive as they once were. Supplies, therefore, have not kept up.

In addition, analysts say that a failure to gauge supply needs and weather patterns accurately in an up-and-down economy has added to the squeeze on supplies.

Prices for natural gas have risen sharply in the last year, reaching a peak at more than $6 per million British thermal units, compared with about $3.65 a year earlier. Stored supplies of natural gas have fallen to the lowest level since the federal government began keeping records in 1976, with levels about 30 percent below the average for the last five years.

The effects of this latest surge in prices have led to renewed calls from the gas industry for the loosening of environmental restrictions on drilling and pipeline construction in the United States. Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham and the National Petroleum Council are convening a top-level meeting later this month to discuss the shortage and propose solutions.

Last week, the Federal Reserve chairman, Alan Greenspan, warned the House Energy and Commerce Committee that short supplies of natural gas could contribute to erosion in the economy. Mr. Greenspan emphasized the potentially important role that liquefied natural gas, in particular, could play in American energy imports.

Yet with the richest overseas stores of gas in distant regions like West Africa and Southeast Asia and the energy industry under technical and financial constraints, the difficulty of increasing imports remains considerable.

With few immediate answers at hand, industry executives and analysts talk of elevated natural gas prices for years to come.

"We're already facing the prospect of higher utility bills for consumers and higher energy costs for many businesses," Robert Allison, chief executive of Anadarko Petroleum, said in an interview. "The shortage is going to become a matter of exporting jobs to countries with cheaper natural gas."

The fertilizer industry has been particularly hard hit, since natural gas accounts for 90 percent of the cost of ammonia, the building block for nitrogen fertilizers. Robert C. Liuzzi, chief executive of CF Industries, a farm-supply cooperative based in Long Grove, Ill., said high natural gas prices were the most serious threat to the industry since the energy shocks of the 1970's.

Ammonia manufacturers are not faring any better, with factory closings becoming common. Mississippi Chemical, an ammonia company based in Yazoo City, Miss., filed for bankruptcy protection last month. The company idled a plant in Ohio, cut production at another in Tennessee and shut down a factory in Donaldsville, La., resulting in the loss of 24 jobs.

Charles O. Dunn, the chief executive, cited the "extreme increase and volatility in the price of domestic natural gas" as contributing to Mississippi Chemical's mounting financial losses.

Power generators that are capable of switching their plants to fuels like oil or coal are doing so to mitigate their dependence on gas. But analysts say that this, in turn, is contributing to higher prices for those fuels.

(Page 2 of 2)

Over all, about 23 percent of the nation's energy needs are met by natural gas. The United States is a large producer of natural gas, second to Russia, and 85 percent of the gas used here comes from domestic wells. But many parts of the country remain off-limits for drilling for environmental reasons.

Gaining access to these areas is a top priority of the energy industry, foreshadowing a more intense struggle between conservationists and natural gas companies. "The sorry thing is that there is gas to be found in this country but we can't get to it," said Mr. Allison of Anadarko, the nation's most active natural gas driller.


Canada, with large reserves and geographic proximity, provides more than 90 percent of the natural gas exported to the United States. But Canadian imports are slowing, too, with some analysts expecting them to decline steadily in the next decade as demand grows at home.

That leaves the United States with the alternative of importing liquefied natural gas from other countries. Such gas, condensed into a liquid by chilling it, is transported by ship, and currently accounts for only 1 percent of the nation's gas imports.

Yet even raising today's imports to 3 percent of the total is not expected to happen anytime soon, because only a handful of terminals in the United States are capable of processing liquefied natural gas. The largest are in Everett, Mass., near Boston, and Lake Charles, La.

The costs involved in building the terminals, and the reluctance in many coastal areas to have large gasification installations in their vicinity, have kept many such projects from getting off the ground. So have fears that terminals could become targets of terrorism and financial concerns about the health and transparency of energy companies in the business world after Enron's collapse.

For instance, the El Paso Corporation, an energy trader based here, has had to abandon an ambitious project to use buoys and shipboard gasification technology to receive liquefied natural gas at offshore locations.

Yet numerous projects for liquefied natural gas terminals are under consideration, ranging from plans to reopen mothballed terminals built in response to the energy crises of the 1970's to more fanciful ideas. One Houston company, Crystal Energy, wants to use existing offshore facilities to build a receiving installation on the Southern California coast.

Several other terminals could be built and functioning within the next three to five years. Then, the United States may face the prospect of increased dependence on large, but sometimes politically problematic exporters like Nigeria, Algeria, Angola, Qatar, Venezuela and Indonesia.

"We're on the verge of discovering that natural gas is almost as important as oil for our energy supplies," said Amy M. Jaffe, associate director of Rice University's energy program. "Once we wake up to this, we'll have to deal with the geopolitical implications of importing natural gas from some of the more unsavory parts of the world."

In the meantime, about the only beneficiaries of the natural gas shortage are companies that can profit from the high prices for the fuel by producing or transporting it in North America. These include huge energy companies like BP, which are considerable gas producers, and a coterie of smaller companies that made a prescient bet on strong demand for natural gas.

Every 10-cent shift upward in gas prices, for instance, translates into a 4 percent gain in cash flow next year for Burlington Resources, which is based here. For EnCana, based in Calgary, Alberta, the same increase results in a 2.5 percent rise in cash flow, according to a study by Deutsche Bank.

"This is the strategy payoff we have been anticipating for many years," Mr. Morgan, EnCana's chief executive, said.



To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (20537)6/17/2003 1:49:52 PM
From: lurqer  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 89467
 
we could approach 10,000 Dow perhaps
the Fed could pump the Dow considerably from here


Given how far we've come, it would be foolish to rule out any possibility, but there is a "mountain" of overhead supply between here and 10,000.

Just saw the CEO of Manpower on the tube (CNBC). No sign of hiring yet, with service jobs going the way manufacturing jobs have already gone. Although Griffith tried to put bullish words into the CEO's mouth, the most he would say is maybe the upcoming quarter could be an inflection point, if manufacturing sees a pickup in demand. Then to (bull spin agenda) Griffith's chagrin, the CEO went on to say that if manufacturing didn't see a pickup in demand, not only would they not commence hiring in the third quarter, they would likely postpone any hiring until next year.

Tis true, hiring tends to be a lagging indicator. So its value lies in confirmation rather than insight. The erosion of service jobs however, may be a harbinger.

lurqer



To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (20537)6/17/2003 2:53:11 PM
From: abuelita  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 89467
 
jim-

macleans.ca

RIGHT PLAY, RIGHT TIME
Rob McEwen's risky gold-mining bet pays off

KATHERINE MACKLEM

WHEN ROBERT MCEWEN got up to speak at his company's annual meeting earlier this month, his first words were: "Gold is money." It's become a mantra for the soft-spoken chairman and chief executive of Goldcorp Inc. "You can help your family and friends," he went on, offering advice to the 500 or so believers and investors gathered at the CBC's Glenn Gould Studio in Toronto, "if you get them to buy gold." It's worked for McEwen. In a market that's lost 50 per cent in value since its September 2000, peak McEwen's company's stock price has doubled, twice, in the past two years. Investors who put $1,000 into Goldcorp in 1993 now have an investment worth close to $23,000. With $460 million in assets and no debt, McEwen is sitting on a gold mine. Literally.

McEwen's firm is a mid-size Canadian mining company with operations in North Dakota and Saskatchewan. It has stakes in a handful of junior exploration companies. But its crown jewel is in northwestern Ontario: the Red Lake mine, first developed in the 1940s. By the time McEwen bought it, in 1989, it was thought to be nearly played out. Wrong. Today, Red Lake is the world's richest gold mine. It's made his shareholders happy and McEwen enormously wealthy. Recently, he donated $10 million for research to Toronto's University Health Network (three major hospitals) and on June 23, Prince Edward will officially open the McEwen Centre for Regenerative Medicine. But before riches and royalty entered his life, McEwen had to overcome major hurdles. In his bid to extract the gold he believed all along was at the Red Lake site, he faced lawsuits, a family feud, a debilitating strike and a death threat, not to mention an investment community that didn't believe in him. "It's funny," McEwen says today, "how things turn around."

McEwen, 53, is a small man, dressed in a nattily tailored suit. His tie is gold silk. On his left hand is a wedding ring of lapis lazuli with a diamond centre, set in a gold band. While his career didn't start out in mining -- he used to be an investment dealer -- he's had a long association with the industry. Growing up, he recalls, "bags of rocks were dropped on the dining room table." McEwen's father and, for a time, business partner, Donald McEwen, ran a small securities firm, McEwen Easson, that specialized in mining companies -- and grubstakers were often at the McEwen home looking for a financial backer. McEwen worked for his dad in the summers and after graduating from university. Apart from a couple of breaks -- back to school for an MBA and a stint at Merrill Lynch -- he stayed with the family firm, buying control from his father in the early 1980s. Around the same time, in 1983 -- three years before he died suddenly -- McEwen senior launched Goldcorp, a separate holding company for gold-mining shares and gold bullion.

McEwen is sitting in a boardroom in his downtown Toronto office. Hanging on the end wall there's a small painting of the Red Lake site, in taupes and reddish browns, signed by Group of Seven painter A. Y. Jackson. The painting was commissioned by the mine's developer, the late and fabled Arthur White, whose firm was called Dickenson Mines Ltd., which McEwen says he spotted as a takeover target in the late 1980s. By then, Red Lake, Dickenson's main holding, was a poor performer. But McEwen had a hunch that it still had lots of gold because right next door, sitting on the same ore bed, was Campbell Lake mine -- and it was an industry giant. Believing there was more, untapped gold in veins yet to be discovered at Red Lake, McEwen used Goldcorp, which he controlled following his father's death, to bid for Dickenson. But he had competition: the savvy Ned Goodman, a rival mining industry investor, now CEO of Dundee Bancorp Inc. An intense takeover battle ensued. Goodman sought a court injunction against McEwen but, with one day to go before the Goldcorp offer expired, an Ontario judge threw Goodman's case out. In April 1989, McEwen gained control of Dickenson and its Red Lake gold mine -- and his problems had just begun.

Before he could search for new veins at Red Lake, McEwen needed to transform Goldcorp, then a holding company, into an operating company. The reorganization would solve two problems: the mine desperately needed an infusion of cash, which the holding company had, but couldn't flip out of its coffers into a subsidiary's. And Goldcorp's share price was suffering from a "holding company discount." A newly minted operating company would both "turbo-charge" Goldcorp's shares, McEwen believed, and allow it to funnel capital into the mine. But he was surrounded by doubters, among them his own family members. "There were two years where our annual meetings were like theatre. I could have sold tickets," he says. "That's when I went out to get the tallest, meanest-looking lawyers I could find."

In those days, McEwen played speed chess against a computer, on the advice of a friend who suggested it would help him think quickly. It did, he says. It's clear he ponders a business strategy much like the board game. "There's a scheme. You have to move. There's a plan that's designed," he says. In the early 1990s, the game was rapid and multi-faceted -- and McEwen played ruthlessly. Restructuring the company, he replaced the entire board of Dickenson Mines and made himself CEO. While warding off an attempted class-action suit by a disgruntled Goldcorp investor, he handled his own relatives who lacked confidence in his strategy. Reluctant to speak about the family feud, he says: "When parents die and they haven't clearly laid out what the game plan is for the disposition or the continuation of assets, you have all sorts of competing interests all of a sudden. There were frustrations and a sense that this wasn't going to become anything." Did views on Red Lake's potential differ among his family members? "Yes," he answers. "And, I'd say, on my own talents."

In 1995, his organizational battles behind him, McEwen was ready to get at the gold underground. He made a crucial $10-million investment to explore the site. Six weeks later, his chief of exploration, Dutch van Tessel, came back with nine drill samples averaging a grade 30 times what the company was then mining. "This was a mine that was supposed to close," McEwen says. "The industry thought it was on its last legs." But before Red Lake's rich new veins could be opened up, the mine was shut down. Its workers, members of the United Steelworkers of America, walked off the job in June 1996. A bitter strike dragged on for 46 months. Against the advice of his production managers, McEwen refused to settle. He wanted a new work schedule, better-educated workers, and shared responsibility with the union for safety and discipline issues. On-site, he housed 150 workers who, he says, were not processing gold -- they were doing exploration work. He tore down the old processing plant and built a new state-of-the-art facility. "I wanted to purge the system of all attitude and start fresh," he says. The cost of producing an ounce of gold at Red Lake before the strike began was US$360, only US$20 less than the market price for an ounce; he says there was no room to negotiate.

In March 1999, McEwen received what he calls a death threat. "You want blood, we'll give you blood," a letter said. Pointing to an explosion that killed nine miners in 1992 at Royal Oak's Giant mine, it said ominously, "Remember Yellowknife." McEwen reacted swiftly, publishing the letter in a local paper and offering $35,000 for a tip that would lead to the arrest of the letter-writer. No arrests have ever been made. Finally in the spring of 2000, McEwen made an offer the strikers couldn't refuse: he'd pay each employee a hefty severance, a signing bonus, and even stock options, if the union agreed to abandon its bargaining rights. He also agreed to hire 45 of the 180 striking workers. It was the first, and only, time the Steelworkers walked away from a unionized shop.

That same year, in a move that rocked the whole industry, Goldcorp posted all its proprietary geological data on the Web -- the Linux of the mining sector -- and gave away US$575,000 in prize money to geologists who proposed the best strategy for finding Red Lake's next six million ounces of gold, above and beyond the company's own results. In 2001, the mine was finally in full production, mining new, richer tunnels, and processing gold for US$59 an ounce, one of the lowest production costs in the world. Last year, costs rose slightly to US$65, still among the world's lowest.

Gold mining is a business that's as much about romance as it is about rocks. The value of gold, which has been creeping up lately, is more about the world's sense of security than it is about one of the softest minerals found in the earth. Yet gold's sheen and its malleable quality allow it to be the very symbol of strength and love and riches. McEwen gets this -- and he's betting that the global marketplace has a long way to go before it feels secure again. Goldcorp holds back gold bullion and now, with seven tonnes, it owns as much gold as Mexico and more than 44 other countries. McEwen predicts gold, now trading at US$353 an ounce, will hit US$400 this year and US$800 in the next six to eight years -- a call he made at his annual meeting.

After that meeting, investors were invited to a reception that was part Brazilian Ball, part Klondike Days. Models clad in gold and with gold-flecked lipstick waved small, gold-coloured flags. Treated to champagne, hors d'oeuvres and finally dinner, shareholders examined displays from Goldcorp suppliers and associates. Even the Toronto hospitals had a display -- information about the regenerative medicine that will be studied in the new McEwen Centre. McEwen, who had his picture taken with Mounties on hand to protect the gold, mingled quietly with the crowd. Investors wanted to know how Goldcorp would maintain its stellar performance. McEwen says he wants, and has been trying to buy, the Campbell mine next door. He's exploring further in the region, and spending millions on a new, deeper shaft at Red Lake. When asked if Goldcorp is a natural takeover target for an even larger company, he suggests that's out of his hands: "Control is in the marketplace." But, like any master chess player, McEwen's not likely to give up the game easily. He'll be trying to ensure that, whatever happens, he and his company will come out golden.