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Strategies & Market Trends : Raptor's Den II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Shread who wrote (1303)	6/17/2003 1:13:55 AM
From: velociraptor_	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 3432

The pattern of the indicators and the wave substructure are the biggest clues. Regarding the wave structure, anyone that knows how to count can find numerous 3 wave patterns since the October low within the larger patterns with 5 wave impulses only in c waves or in the 'a' wave of a zigzag. Even those tend to often have 3 wave substructures themselves which are indicative of being in a corrective pattern and not part of a bullish trend. If you compare the patterns of indicators over the last 3 year with that of the prior 5 years, you can see a contrast in how they develop between major up and down trends. That pattern hasn't really changed in the last 3 years. There are a lot of other reasons as well but this is probably the most clear. My mistake thus far has been in underestimating the size of the pattern by recognizing early in its development its character that fits it into a corrective pattern and not a bullish impulse and a bear market low. At this stage of the game, it becomes important to recognize the size of what we are dealing with and the rallies are going to look pretty darn bullish though they are not in the long term.While I have changed my mind on that scenario, that stance was partially correct...it will likely not be a long term low, however, the magnitude of the pattern suggests even the counter uptrends are going to take a while.