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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (6297)	6/18/2003 12:17:57 AM
From: Sarmad Y. Hermiz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25522

Gottfried, I don't give much relevance to the B2B ratio by itself. However, even the billings and bookings numbers will not tell the full story, unless they are associated with the trend in inventories and final user demand. The disk drive companies in their various mid-quarter updates usually say how much inventory is "in the channel". WHich currently is 5 weeks, and is same as it was at start of quarter. I wonder if there is a comparable inventory measure for chips ? My point is to try to decide if we are just in a period extended working down of excess inventory ? Or whether demand has shifted down to a lower level, and the current billings is what we can expect as an equilibrium level for the current state of the economy. Obviously I prefer if the problem is merely some excess inventory that will soon be depleted. I think that in the absence of data about the inventory trend, it is very difficult to draw conclusions from the B2B data. Sarmad