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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ken Reidy who wrote (31200)	6/18/2003 5:02:11 PM
From: jimsioi	Respond to of 36161

KEN, re the HUI Failure to follow through and another trashing of GOLD from the mid $360s was the PM story today. This hardly should have come as a big surprise given the managed nature of these markets.. The tail off in the after hours for GOLD yesterday was a tell tail sign of sorts. Things didn't fall apart among the miners though on the HUI we now have several "dents" in the indicators. For example the DMI green line hooked down as did the RSI.. Your comment that the high yesterday was made on good volume I can't confirm but the further off from high volume the more likely a pullback .... or so goes one theory. Many theories exist on volume; several contradict others. High volume after a protracted run with the indicators I follow on their respective ceiling is a time to liquidate, indicative of the end of an intermediate term trend move that Isopatch refers to. I fully subscribe to his thesis that it is such intermediate sector moves one wants to play aggressively and depart cleanly. Doing such is a whole different matter. With GOLD seemingly trapped between the commercial sales in the area of $365 and their covering around $355, and the dollar finding friends, getting ready for a poke through 94 on the dollar index to run stops, I'm restraining myself from exhibiting any optimism in my trading toward miners. I suspect we pause in here and work off the slightly over bought reading before pressing on. Real easy to be wrong about short term swings, as I have proven. Generally, I have a fundamental bias to the long side in metals and energy and swing between levels of being invested, looking for those intermediate highs and lows. (Much reduced recently in the energy sector and about 75% full in miners, currently.) Have we seen an intermediate top in the miners? I'm inclined to think not and the fall off in the bonds suggests that some money will shift to miners as a counter balance to general equities, whereas the bonds have provided that so well in the past. Progress will be stifled just when seemingly it is just being made by the formidable commercials - that is a 'given'. HUI stockcharts.com[h,a]dbcaynay[dc][pc50!c200!c20!c13!f][iut!Ul14!Ub14!Lh14,3!Ll14!Ld20!Lya7,14,28]&pref=G ASA trading at a discount to NAV... Big wad of overhead up there between $39.50 and 42....DMI also hooked down at a level where it has done so twice before prior to pullbacks. If I really liked South African miners as much as I did when the RAND was falling, it would be a candidate....Favorites currently are GOLD, the miner, RANGY, GSS, WHT, and NEM...along with longer horizon play IVANHOE.... stockcharts.com[h,a]dbcayiay[dd][pc50!c200!c20!c13!f][vc60][iut!Ul14!Ub14!Lh14,3!Ll14!Ld20!Lya7,14,28]&pref=G