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Pastimes : The Justa and Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wally Mastroly who wrote (2603)	6/18/2003 7:31:56 PM
From: Boca_PETE	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10065

Wally M: RE:("Investors Intelligence keeps getting bullish") At the rate bullish sentiment has been rising in recent weeks, it won't be long before it exceeds 100%. P <grin>

To: Wally Mastroly who wrote (2603)	6/19/2003 12:24:07 AM
From: marc ultra	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10065

Wally re <<<<Investors Intelligence keeps getting bullish:>>>> I can conjure up reasons or at least rationalizations about why this is not a stop sign at this point. The theory is if everybody's bullish than everyone should be relatively fully invested and thus there is no money available and the only direction is down for the market. What may be different here is the proximity in time to the end of the worst bear market in this generation. People became gunshy and by everything I've heard there is still incredible amounts of money that may be returning a bit less than zero in real terms. This money is not represented by a newsletter survey of gurus. Then of course we have the Fed wanting to do everything possible to pump up liquidity at the same time that we have significant fiscal stimulus. The combination is almost unimaginable in the past in a time when the economy appears well out of recession. Even extreme measures like putting a tax on money in the bank have been brought up as possibilities if the Fed doesn't get to see the evidence of decent recovery they want. I don't believe those circumstances have existed any time in the recent past and may just make for one of those situations where an indicator like II Sentiment simply won't work that quickly. Finally let's keep in mind a point a Bob has made several times. If you look at cyclical bulls during the 1966- 1982 secular bear there were four of them. The The gains in the S&P(?Dow) for these four ranged between 32%-76%. It would thus be very reasonable that we have significant gains to go before we flip back to a cyclical bear. I also have to wonder if there are a lot more functional bears around that are not picked up in the II numbers. The market with its usual evil genius has taken off so fast and furious since March that in typical fashion it is making it extremely difficult for people to jump back in as the train doors shut rapidly and the train exploded out of the station. BTW I saw the technician Ralph Bloch on CNBC recently and he had gotten out of the market largely due to II and other sentiment readings. It will be interesting to see what happens. Marc