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Pastimes : SARS - what next? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (551)	6/18/2003 5:46:22 PM
From: Henry Niman	Respond to of 1070

The National Labs in Winnipeg is going back and re-testing samples from suspect cases in Toronto. This could give the real deal on just have far and wide the SARS CoV has spread and show where the real reservoir of SARS CoV is located (hint: its not a wild animal). torontosun.com

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (551)	6/18/2003 5:52:18 PM
From: Henry Niman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1070

>>A better test will be next October, but with such a low reservoir of infection and a wide-awake world, it's unlikely that Sars will get a grip next northern winter<< You are missing two major points which will loom large in the fall. One is the spread of the SARS CoV (not just the patients detected by a case definition that is largely tied to known contacts). The other is the accumulation of mutations in the SARS CoV. The virus that exploded out of the Metrople Hotel had a 29 nt deletion as well as 7 mutations and the number of mutations has since gone up. The mutations that exist today were not present in the fall of 2002 and the reservoir was largely limited to wild animals in Guangdong Province. Next fall will be a whole new ball game.

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (551)	6/26/2003 8:29:54 AM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1070

Cumulative deaths and weekly deaths graphs: x = 10 deaths. Cumulative deaths 26 Feb ? ..5 Mar x 12 Mar x 19 Mar x 26 Mar xx ...2 Apr xxxxx ...9 Apr xxxxxxxxxx .16 Apr xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx .23 Apr xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx .30 Apr xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx ...7 May xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx .14 May xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx .21 May xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx[666] .28 May xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx[745] ..4 June xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx[772] 11 June xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx[789] 18 June xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx [801] 25 June xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx [808] On a weekly basis: Deaths for the week. x = 10 deaths. z = early days, fewer than 10 per week. 26 Feb z ..5 Mar z 12 Mar z 19 Mar z 26 Mar x ...2 Apr xxx ...9 Apr xxxxx .16 Apr xxxxxx .23 Apr xxxxxxxxx .30 Apr xxxxxxxxxxxx ..7 May xxxxxxxxxxxxx .14 May xxxxxxxxx .21 May xxxxxxxx .28 May xxxxxxxx ..4 June xxx 11 June xx 18 June x 25 June x who.int Mqurice