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Strategies & Market Trends : Raptor's Den II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: dvdw© who wrote (1310)	6/18/2003 11:45:34 PM
From: velociraptor_	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 3432

1. If Ewave as its described in your post, says what you just rationalized it as saying. ..my question is What Good is it? Ewave has lots of predictive power but like anything else, it has its limitations. It cannot be used alone for any degree of reasonable success. Like they say, put 10 Elliott Thoerists in a room, give them a chart, and you'll get 12 different counts. However, with practice your degree of success increases as you become familiar with the nuances of the patterns and if you use it in conjunction with other indicators it can become a powerful tool. Nevertheless, one will never be able to use it with 100% accuracy no matter how good you are. There is no "holy grail" in trading. There is not an indicator or tool out there that does have this capability and it is the nature of the market to involve some degree of variablity. Keep in mind that Ewave also has 2 basic pattern sets...impulsive and corrective. Corrective patterns have much more variability allowed in pattern rules and are thus more difficult to accurately assess than impulsive ones. There will be times when you can nail a pattern and others when you will be lost. Overall though, it is probably one of the best tools at your disposal, but only IF used in conjunction with other indicators. 2 Having Never visited here before tonight and never corresponded with you before, if ewave works in a predictive way, than why are you not Long? This is a bear market which means the bulk of the wave structures are corrective. As mentioned above these involve 3 wave corrective patterns and are more difficult to assess. Despite the distance of the rally, it is based on a 3 wave substructure and is most likely a C wave pattern given the strength of the rally as well as the sentiment associated with it. We correctly nailed the low in October and from that point several possibilities existed. You almost always have several potential scenarios at any one time with maybe 1 or a few favored. As you progress, you eliminate scenarios but you also pick up new ones for various time frames. It was apparent fairly early after the October and the March low that the rally structure has 3 wave substructure thus a top and turn is eventually expected and not a new bull market. Between those points and now, there have been several potential areas where a top and turn could have been expected based on timing cycles where the structures also had the potential to correlate. Indeed many did pinpoint a high, but not the major high. Thus, you move on, but with 3 wave abc sets that expanded into larger abc sets, it becomes difficult to know where exactly the real high comes though you always have possibilities. The 3 wave sets though do guarantee one thing...the rally will be retraced. The time to be long was back in October...at this point it is not time to be long. 3. Is Ewave a bottom line a tool of Hindsight; without any real time predictive value? Yes or No? Hindsight is always 20/20. You can always fit an ewave pattern to the past so of course as a tool of hindsight it is incredibly accurate. As mentioned above though, the forward outlook is always filled with potential scenarios that are added and eliminated but using the past is where your predictive power lies. For example, if you see a clean 5 wave impulse in the past, and you can break down the 5th wave into 5 waves, you can bet that a reversal and retrace is likely going to happen soon and thus the opposing trade to the trend can be taken. The trick only lies in determining what the next pattern will be and you have several degrees of pattern potential to work with. Again, usgin the above example, will the 5 wave pattern complete a large degree impulse and a large degree corrective will follow? If true, then you might have a large impulse down. Or will the impulse be followed by a corrective only...in that case you could have a 3 wave zigzag or a 3 wave flat. One starts with a 5 wave impulse counter trend and the other has a smaller degree 3 wave corrective. Thus, you're future knowledge to that pattern is limited to 3 waves which at least can be expected. Then you watch to see whether it is a 5 or a 3 and move on. It's always a continues process as the waves unfold.