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To: Giordano Bruno who wrote (246300)	6/18/2003 8:29:56 PM
From: patron_anejo_por_favor	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 436258

Nice, good column. The IIAA numbers were STAGGERING (Bullish advisers now over 60% and bears at an all time record low 16.1%).

To: Giordano Bruno who wrote (246300)	6/18/2003 9:36:35 PM
From: Secret_Agent_Man	Respond to of 436258

Let's turn to gold Richard Russell Dow Theory Letters Jun 19, 2003 Extracted from the 18 June 2003 issue of Richard's Remarks Let's turn to gold, which was hit today, probably because the dollar was stronger. The point & figure chart (click) provides a good picture of where gold is. The rising blue trendline depicts longer-term support. You can see that gold is rather laboriously building a rising or bullish structure. The next technical "victory" for gold would be for gold to reach the 376 level and the "victory of the year" would be gold hitting a new high on this chart at the 392 box. The way things are going, it's not going to be easy. Many subscribers write that aside from Newmont, the leader, they want an interesting speculative gold stock. One that I've mentioned is WHT or Wheaton River Minerals which I show on a daily chart below courtesy of Big Charts. The rising volume as the price advances is an encouraging indication for WHT Wheaton River Minerals Ltd. Further note on gold -- It does seem to me that in the very short-term, the metal, gold, is a "football" that is easily manipulated by the Commercials and the gold banks. Of course it's a lot easier to manipulate one item than it is to manipulate dozens and dozens of items, and I'm referring to the metal as opposed to the many gold shares. Therefore, I notice that the gold shares have stopped "jumping" to the tune of every daily swing in the metal. For instance, as I write this morning that gold is down six dollars yet the leading gold share, Newmont, is down only 33 cents. XAU is down only .97 and HUI is down less than a point. I also want to emphasize that the gold situation is a long-term picture, a situation based on the US heading into a crisis of overspending and undersaving, a crisis where the viability of the dollar will ultimately come into question. It's a crisis-situation where the US is now running a trade deficit of $40 billion a month or over an incredible billion dollars a day. The coming dollar crisis seems almost set in stone. The US is in a position that no other nation has been before -- the US is the world's dominant military force, we've become policeman to the world, and at the same time we've become the world's largest debtor. The US is slated to spend $380 billion on its military next year. This is the formula for a collapsing currency -- the only question is timing. And on top of our coming international mess, we're facing horrendous domestic problems via our aging population and our unfunded and out-of-control Social Security and Medicare expenses. All these difficulties have, so far, been handled via the wholesale production of fiat dollars. Ultimately, it's the viability of these paper dollars that must come into question. Can you carry debt with infusions of more and more debt? You can? But for how long? Oh, until the next administration and the next Fed chairman take over? I see, Conclusion -- Investors holding gold or gold shares will have to be patient. And you'll have to learn to ignore the erratic changes in the intra-day and even daily changes in gold. The gold shares already seem to be learning that lesson. More follows for subscribers . . . Richard Russell Dow Theory Letters © Copyright 2003 Dow Theory Letters, Inc 321gold.com

To: Giordano Bruno who wrote (246300)	6/18/2003 9:46:29 PM
From: Secret_Agent_Man	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

Meanwhile, the U.S. government is basically broke. State and local municipalities are floundering in the red and laying people off. Other than wild speculation in housing, there is not much to point to in terms of economic strength. In fact, all those folks who believed that the previous stimulative effects were working are now counting on another Fed rate cut at the end of the month to bail them out. But they never explain why the 13th cut should work when the previous 12 have done nothing, or the previous tax package did nothing. Things are a mess, and they're not going to get any better because Al Greenspan cuts rates again. Bulls in extreme, bears in exile The fact of the matter is that the stock market rally is just a bear market rally, like all the others have been, grounded on nothing more than hype and hope. In that same vein, sentiment has swung a long way. Last week, Investors Intelligence reported its latest survey of investor sentiment shows that bulls are up to 58.7% and that bears are down to 16.3% -- the lowest reading in 16 years. Before this rally began in February and March, when I was constructive about the prospects for a rally, I said to friends that I thought before it was all through, the bulls would get to 60% and the bears would be in the teens. Well, I'll take last week's statistics, declare victory and move on. Sentiment is about as lopsided as it gets. Folks who are partying on the long side better have a plan to get out early, because when everyone finally decides they need to hit the exits sometime later this year, it's going to get mighty crowded. That brings me to a quote I'd like to share with readers: "It is apparent that the public preference for stocks is not only as marked as ever, but also, the will to speculate is still a speculative factor not to be overlooked. The prompt return of huge speculation and the liberal manner in which current earnings are again being discounted indicates that it will be difficult to quench the fires of stock market speculation for long." Well, maybe not that long. This quote came from "The Trader" column in Barron's, published on March 24, 1930. The high of that bear market rally was less than a month later, on April 17, from which the stock market plunged for the next 18 months to its ultimate lows. So, the denial trade, while bigger and more pervasive than ever, is not unique to the 21st century.