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Strategies & Market Trends : Heinz Blasnik- Views You Can Use -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (2528)	6/20/2003 10:44:19 AM
From: John Madarasz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4905

Thanks for the insights, fwiw, According to Marc Faber's latest work, the United states consumes about 22 million barrels of oil today vs a per capita consumption of around 4.5 million bpd for China...that equates to about 5 times. Versus the whole of Asia U.S per Capita consumption of oil is still only 10 times... Faber also sees the almost "inevitable clash"of Chinese interests in the Middle East also, and i've drawn some pretty convincing charts pointing to much higher crude prices over the long term.... but I think it's also very important to realize that the American Economy in the 19th Century experienced a series of financial and socio economic crises, including a civil war, and still managed to perform admirably, and this in a deflationary environment. Both Faber and Rogers believe that even thru certain crisis China is poised to gain market share across the board, and become the dominant player of the world in the next 10-20 years...and beyond. I respect and appreciate your opinion, but i'm wont to lean in the favor of these fellows views and experience.

To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (2528)	6/20/2003 11:44:10 AM
From: LLCF	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4905

<the problem with this kind of facile analysis is that it will be physically impossible for it to happen. economic growth in the modern world requires energy--he who has the most energy produces the most. > Well, that would be the middle east... are they more likely to be friendly to US or China??? No need to answer. So you think that makes it 'physically impossible'?? What does that mean? <how much more energy will China need before our grandchildren are relegated to the status of servants for a billion-plus Chinese yuppies?> That's not the way it works... when there are a billion Chinese yuppies, their time will be up. Plus, you don't end up being servants, you just become irrelevant... GB, Germany, France.... etc. <this actually understates the impending pricing pressure on oil due to Chinese economic growth > But who can trade for oil??? US?? NO, China... yes! IMO this factor FAVORS the fall of US and rise of China! We're the ones who's lifestyle is dependent on cheap oil, they will drive price up, hurting the oil consumers... US. BIG PAIN COMING OUR WAY under your scenario IMO. DAK

To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (2528)	6/20/2003 5:08:04 PM
From: NOW	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4905

in essence then , you agree with his stand on commodities.