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Gold/Mining/Energy : Precious and Base Metal Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Canuck Dave who wrote (12865)6/20/2003 1:45:31 PM
From: Rocket Red  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 39344
 
Gold Tumbles as US roars back to life :)



To: Canuck Dave who wrote (12865)6/21/2003 9:46:18 AM
From: russwinter  Respond to of 39344
 
<What's your take on the CDU (Cardero) situation?>

I glanced at it at one point. However, one of the first things I do is total up what the market is paying for plays. In CDU's case, when the stock was at two bucks, mkt cap was US$30m, minus the 2.5m cash they have, means EV is 27.5m (*). Even after the "distribution period" (read my prior generic posts on this topic) when the stock traded at buck fifty, that's $20m EV.

To make a long story short, a $20m EV seemed pretty steep to pay for promising trenching and sampling results. Since the market only pays $10-$15 Au equiv. for some superlative advanced stage deposits (for example: GBU's Rosia Montana, AGI's Multatos, CBD's Meadowlark, MNG's Hope Bay, WTZ's Penasquito, GBG's Ivanhoe and Burnstone) around the world, you are making a leap of faith that CDU's target has 1.25-2.0m Au eqiv. (or 100m Ag plus) low cost oz, before a drill hole has even been announced. As since when has any exploration drill project been that easy? My advice:leave a little more room for error (or to hang yourself), cause we're all going to need it on these grassroots plays.

(*) Heck, that's the EV of the other stock (CAU) everybody here has been pooh-poohing, and they have 10m advanced low cost oz in the bag. All I have to do is watch them win an election next year <VVBG>.
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