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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dayuhan who wrote (102297)	6/22/2003 2:00:59 AM
From: Hawkmoon	Respond to of 281500

I think our biggest problem will not be Baathist remnants, but the organized Shiites. Well, I think the term "organized Shiites" is somewhat of an oxymoron at the moment. There is a tremendous power struggle going on between some relatively young Imams, especially after the killing of Al-Khoei. Some analysts believe that it was Al-Sadr who was responsible for these killing, as well as the intimidation of Ayatollah Sistani (who advocates secular government in Iraq). And these power struggles leave some very harsh memories that likely will ensure continued fractioning of the Shiite community. usatoday.com And many over-estimate Iran's influence amongst the Shiite community in Iraq. These people are still Arabs.. And Arabs and Persians have a long history of despising one another. The Iranians will obviously vy for influence with whoever they believe the best "horse" is in the race for consolidating power, but that's no guarantee that they will be able to control him. Al-Sistani remains the key to the Iraqi Shiite community. And he has apparently secluded himself back in his house, either out of fear, or frustration. And I think the Shiite question is why we're starting to see more student demonstrations in Iran. I believe we've sent "signals" to commence civil disobedience operations amongst student organizers in order to send the message that we can just easily destabilize Iran as they can destabilize Iraq. Except that we have no real reason to stop, or curtail, such demonstrations.. And it might get to a point where they take on a life of their own. A few hundred committed terrorists can accomplish this without ever having to expose themselves en masse. I have to disagree. Sure they might cause some damage, kill some people.. etc.. But so long as we're able to retaliate and/or respond in a manner that more of them are killed than ourselves, eventually they will see the futility. Life will eventually return to some level of normality in Iraq. No one is starving, the oil is beginning to flow, and more and more people are starting to go back to work. But I think it's imperative that we need to get Iraqis to rebuild their own country... We cannot rebuild it. What we build will be looted and stolen. We should make material available, and managerial consulting, but the actual work must be completed by Iraqis as much as possible, both for personal, as well as national, pride. The easiest way for them to get us out of there is regime change. They can’t force it, but they can still accomplish it if they convince the electorate that the risk of extended occupation exceeds the reward. Interesting perspective... I'm tucking that one away.. Hawk