GOP Aims for Dominance in '04 Race
Republicans to Seek Governing Majority by Feeding Base, Courting New Voters
By Dan Balz
Washington Post Staff Writer
URL:http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A19264-2003Jun21.html
Sunday, June 22, 2003; Page A01
Republican strategists see the 2004 election as their best opportunity in a generation to construct a durable governing majority, and they have set in motion a systematic and coordinated strategy designed to leverage President Bush's popularity and break the impasse that has dominated the country's politics since the mid-1990s.
The president himself established the ambitions behind the 2004 strategy earlier this year, when he authorized advisers to begin planning for a reelection campaign that began in earnest last week with a series of fundraising events. According to several GOP strategists, Bush told his team: Don't give me "a lonely victory." Said one top Bush adviser, "He said, 'I don't want what Nixon had. I don't want what Reagan had.' "
Both President Richard M. Nixon in 1972 and President Ronald Reagan in 1984 won landslide reelection victories, but neither victory produced the lasting benefits to the party that Bush is seeking in 2004. "He [Bush] was explicit about that," a GOP official said. "He doesn't want to [win] with 55 percent and have a 51-49 Senate. He wants to expand the governing coalition."
The president's advisers have been discouraged from sounding overconfident, and they cite a litany of reasons the 2004 election should be close. Said one former party official, "Any [talk of] blowout is taboo."
Behind the scenes, however, under the direction of White House senior adviser Karl Rove, preparations are underway for a comprehensive assault on the electorate. The plan would use every political and governmental strategy available, such as maximizing the advantages of the war on terrorism, neutralizing a Democratic strength by adding a prescription drug benefit to Medicare, and waging an ideologically charged battle, if necessary, should a Supreme Court vacancy open up.
The Bush team's plan to create a governing majority includes calculated efforts to lure swing voters and elements of the Democratic coalition -- Latinos, married women, white union workers, Jews and what GOP officials call the growing "investor" class -- to the Republican Party, according to interviews with many Republicans familiar with the planning.
Alongside this strategy, the Republican National Committee (RNC) has launched the most organized effort yet to build and reshape the party at the grass roots, by recruiting candidates who share Bush's agenda and style, registering voters and winning the turnout battle in November 2004.
Marc Racicot, who will move from chairmanship of the RNC to chairmanship of Bush's reelection committee in mid-July, said the party has set a goal of registering 3 million new Republicans by the end of this year. "We will spend in excess of $1 million on that effort," he said.
Republicans have large ambitions because they expect to have an enormous financial advantage in 2004. The Bush reelection committee plans to raise and spend about $200 million between now and the GOP convention next summer, far beyond what the Democratic nominee will have. The RNC also has the capacity to raise far more than the Democratic National Committee under the new limits established by the McCain-Feingold campaign finance law.
Signs of Close Election
There are good reasons for Bush strategists to anticipate a close election. Given the unsettled state of the world and the still-weak economy, a second Bush term is far from assured -- let alone the goal of making Republicans the country's majority party.
Early polls show Bush receiving the support of less than 50 percent of the public when matched against a generic Democratic nominee. That is far below his approval rating, suggesting a wait-and-see attitude on the part of many voters.
Economic problems could derail hopes for a second Bush term just as quickly as they did for his father in 1992. "If we're below about 2 percent real growth, this [election] could degenerate into a dogfight," said former House speaker Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.). "If we're in a recession, this will be a dogfight. If we're above 2 percent real growth, I just think the Democrats are in a world of hurt."
Instability in Iraq, questions about whether Bush or other administration officials misled the public about the threat of weapons of mass destruction, violence in the Middle East and continued fears about terrorist attacks at home threaten claims of success in foreign policy. That could transform one of Bush's clearest advantages into an arena for challenge by the Democrats.
Bush also has proved to be a sharply polarizing president -- extraordinarily popular with Republicans and extremely disliked by the Democratic base. That points to a motivated Democratic opposition next year. "I think they will be energized," one of Bush's top strategists said. "Very energized. Very, very energized."
The GOP 2004 game plan by itself will not produce the kind of durable shift in the balance of power if economic or international conditions unravel. But as the Democrats look inward for direction and prepare for a months-long battle for their presidential nomination, Republicans are moving ahead on a scale and scope that currently dwarf what the Democrats can do.
Bush strategists have spent months analyzing the results of recent elections for clues to the direction of the country. "We assume the country remains closely divided between the two political parties," said Ken Mehlman, campaign manager for Bush's reelection committee. "One of the key questions is whether the incremental improvements the Republicans saw in '02 remain and are durable in '04."
Within the Bush high command, however, there is optimism that 2002 was the beginning of a lasting change. "My sense is that we've gained a slight advantage and it may be permanent," one key adviser said. The adviser paused and added, "Durable, since none of these things lasts forever."
Republicans hope to add a couple of seats in 2004 to their 51-49 advantage in the Senate. They say if they accomplish that, they will be set up to add several more in 2006 because of the particular seats that will be up that year. Because of redistricting, Democratic hopes of recapturing the House in 2004 appear to be minimal. And while Republicans do not anticipate significant gains, they believe they can continue to pad their margin of 229 Republicans to 205 Democrats and 1 independent who votes with the Democrats.
Fighting Demographics
Top Bush advisers do not believe one election alone creates a political realignment, but they know that 2004 is the key date in their long-term plan for expanding the party.
One part of the strategy calls for continued care and feeding of the party's tripartite base of economic, national-security and social conservatives, with a policy agenda that touts U.S. preeminence in the world, pours more resources into the war on terrorism, calls for additional tax cuts and supports party orthodoxy with its positions on abortion, guns and judgeships.
A secure conservative base frees Bush and his advisers to pursue the other, more ambitious, element of their strategy, which is to use domestic and foreign policy initiatives, governmental appointments and symbolic actions to increase support among swing voters. Republican strategists believe they must move aggressively with Bush in office to reach out to nontraditional Republicans to offset demographic trends that would otherwise lessen the party's chances of sustaining power.
Bush's desire for a party-wide victory, according to strategists familiar with White House planning, means that the president's travel schedule, particularly in the final weeks of the campaign, will be determined by where he can do the most good for Republicans in competitive House, Senate and gubernatorial races as well as for himself. That would be a rerun of 2002, when Bush successfully used his political capital to rally GOP voters.
"There is total coordination," one party official said. "The message is coordinated, data is coordinated, the administration is coordinated. . . . The harmony between the political operation at the White House and the RNC is beyond what I've seen before."
Tight coordination also means tight control by the White House, which now dictates to candidates the terms for financial assistance. In 2002, for example, the White House and the national party committees told GOP candidates that if they wanted to receive financial and other assistance, they had to include in their campaign plan a commitment, backed up with money, to bid for the Latino vote, including the use of Spanish-language media where possible. The same will be true in 2004.
Political scientists who study party balance, looking for signs of party realignment, say there is no evidence that the 2002 elections signaled a shift from the close partisan divisions of 2000 and the late 1990s. "There's no sign yet of a stable shift in partisanship toward the Republican Party," said Gary Jacobson of the University of California, San Diego.
Republicans have had similar ambitions to realign the country's politics several times in the past three decades, only to see those dreams wiped away by their own mistakes -- Watergate under Nixon -- or skillful counterattacks by the Democrats -- President Bill Clinton's successful duel with Gingrich in the mid-'90s.
This time, however, Republicans believe they start from a more secure place: a popular president, an enthusiastic base, control of the House and Senate and more state legislators than at any time in the past 50 years.
"I think we are in a highly competitive environment with rough parity between the parties, but we have an advantage in George W. Bush," said Ralph Reed, former Georgia GOP chairman who is expected to play a key role in Bush's reelection campaign. Reed also said, "The issue for Republicans is how do you take that advantage, which is based on a leader or a man, and institutionalize it. The way you do that is to, in effect, replicate him through other candidates."
Bush advisers also say there is more acceptance of the Republican label than there was in Nixon's or Reagan's time. One strategist, after scouring internal GOP memos from earlier presidential campaigns, said, "In '76 in particular, even in '84, there is an absolute fear of mentioning the word 'Republicans.' "
Both Republican and Democratic pollsters have detected evidence that the party's image -- if not party identification -- has improved during Bush's presidency. "That's new and would be debilitating [for Democrats] if it were to remain," Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg said.
Democrats, however, see signs of GOP erosion since the 2002 elections. Greenberg said such indicators directly challenge White House assumptions about Bush's ability to expand the party. For example, Bush used the issue of education in 2000 to neutralize a once-powerful Democratic advantage and to cast himself as a compassionate conservative. But Greenberg said his most recent polls show the Democrats again with a clear advantage on education.
Republicans made inroads among female voters, a core constituency of the Democrats, in 2002. Bush advisers say their real target is married women, and they claim that part of their recent success is because the soccer moms of the 1990s have become "security moms" since Sept. 11, 2001. But Greenberg said his polling shows that women were far less enthusiastic about the Iraq war and that those attitudes could make it more difficult for Bush to continue to attract female support.
The Bush team's strategy for realigning the country is both demographic and geographic. Bush strategists plan a major effort, building on the president's popularity among younger white men, to break the Democrats' grip on the upper-Midwest states of Iowa, Wisconsin and Minnesota, which have been solidly Democratic since 1988. They also see opportunities to pick up states such as Pennsylvania, Michigan, New Mexico, Oregon and perhaps Washington, all of which Bush lost in 2000.
GOP strategists assume that Florida again will be one of the most contested states in the country but say they are in better shape than they were three years ago.
"I think it is far more secure in the aftermath of the November 2002 election than it was before," a Bush adviser said. "This was where they were going to, in essence, win the first battle of 2004 by defeating [Gov.] Jeb [Bush], but instead Jeb won it strong. But there's no doubt that they're going to be coming hard for Florida."
GOP strategists are divided over whether Bush can put California, which has voted Democratic in every presidential election since 1988, back into play. But they agree that the party cannot remain shut out of the country's biggest state and still aspire to become the majority party.
"They're starting to get enamored with California again," one skeptical GOP strategist said. "I don't know how we do it, but we get suckered every time."
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