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Pastimes : SARS - what next? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (583)	6/23/2003 3:02:27 AM
From: Henry Niman	Respond to of 1070

Most of SARS was spread by super spreaders, so stopping a few can have a major effect. However, I think SARS is very seasonal and I think that by now the virus is very widespread. I don't think quarantining will do much in the fall. We will see, but I suspect that the number of SARS cases was heading south with or without quarantine because flu/cold season has ended. The fall will provide the answer about how effective quarantining is. SARS probably isn't as infectious initially, so quarantining can have an effect, but the virus mutates on average of 3 times for each replication, so natural selection will play a major role and I expect variants that are more infectious to emerge. If you look at the clones from Tor2 you would be amazed. Mutations everywhere, and that's just from one person.