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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pezz who wrote (35284)	6/22/2003 9:16:03 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Hi Pezz, <<See, I'm not scared......I'm NOT scared .....I tell ya>> yes, yes, i see that, but when are you going to start making some of the more exotic bets away from your more familiar gambling tables? Look north, see Canada, Peek south, spot Mexico:0) Chugs, Jay

To: pezz who wrote (35284)	6/23/2003 4:07:22 AM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 74559

Hello Pezz, Today's Report: I had Japanese lunch with money manager and bond trader friends at “Tokyo Joe” in the bar area of central business district. We scared each other to death, even though all did OK year-to-date. We realized that gradually but surely we are being pushed out on the risk horizon by Greensputin’s zero interest rate promise, and Bernankaput’s money helicopter threat. We collectively believe that there will be a 'meaningful', as in 'material', to be interpreted as 'it could hurt', correction of the US equity market before November 2003 (because it has been too fast too high), and a liquidity/fiscal driven rally into November 2004, and then, collapse, powered by financial gravity and economic reality. We do not see China revaluing Yuan upwards in 2003 nor 2004, and so we see possible rumble within the Euro zone and possible fear of crumbling of the Euro construct. This scenario assumes that we are not get hit by some exogenous kaboom of the physical/chemical/biological type. We like commodity currencies, gold, precious/strategic metal mining, energy, energy services, dividend-yielding emerging market equities. We do not want to short JGB, nor US Treasury, because we believe government bond yields can go to absolute zero and stay there. We are OK with shorting USD and Yen now, within reason, and we are OK with shorting/buying Leap Puts on US equity markets starting sometime mid-year 2004. We, at the core of our brains, believe Greensputin and Bernankaput’s promise to send USD to ruin, and we, at the nucleus of our hearts, believe Bush’s threat to keep spending money he does not have. We must believe our policy leaders. After returning to office, I used my 50% of my HKDollars to buy paper gold, AUD, and CAD. These are the natural trades, even though I did just a short time ago sold some AUD to buy some CAD, because some natural trades feel more obvious than other apparent wagers. The above constitute my interim roadmap to TeoTwawKi, and as we approach the USA election in 2004, regardless of who wins, we approach TPonRr (The Point of No Return). Basically, we want to get ahead of the disbelieving crowds as they learn to trust Greensputin and Bernankaput, and we want to avoid shorting the helicopters that the global central bankers intends to use in ferrying liquidity. Chugs, Jay