Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (39790)	6/23/2003 12:16:13 PM
From: Johnny Canuck	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 71611

Monday's Opening View Today's market will be at the mercy of traders returning from the weekend. There's little in the way of earnings and the economic calendar is bare. Things will begin to heat up tomorrow with the start of a two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Although we won't hear anything from the group until Wednesday, investors will have to deal with the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence report. Wednesday could rock the markets, since we don't know for sure how much of a rate cut is factored into stocks. Thursday will offer a final look at first-quarter Gross Domestic Product (I think the FOMC gets a preview of this one). Finally, we close the week with the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment report. With just one week and a day until the end of June (and the second quarter), you have to wonder if those fund managers have picked up enough issues to make their portfolios look good. From that point of view, I would expect the relative-strength leaders to continue to outperform and the laggards will suffer. The questions are, how far should you chase those leaders and will selling greet the market in July? Equity option activity on the CBOE yesterday had 294,278 put contracts trade compared to 824,846 call contracts. The resulting 0.357 single- session put/call ratio has the 21-day moving average at 0.566, just about as close to the August low as you can get. We would indeed expect a market reversal at any moment, but I need to be shown. Should the trend persist lower, the 0.54 level would be another target. That level was hit on November 16, 2001, but offered little in the way of predicting the market's near-term direction. The CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX – 21.09) tumbled lower by 4.18 percent, which was probably more a result of an expiration Friday than a measure of demand. The Nasdaq-100 Trust Volatility Index (QQV – 27.03) dropped by 5.75 percent. The CBOE Nasdaq Market Volatility Index (VXN – 32.34) fell by 4.49 percent. Friday's internals showed signs of fatigue. Volume on the NYSE came in at a "strong" 1.70 billion shares. The advance/decline ratio moved into "loser territory" at 0.95 (1,523 advancing issues to 1,645 declining issues). The 91 new annual highs outpaced three new annual lows. This is the lowest level of new highs seen in quite some time. Volume on the Nasdaq held at an "anemic" 1.22 billion shares. The advance/decline ratio was a breakeven 1.00 (1,574 advancing issues to 1,574 declining issues). New annual highs came in at just 126 while new annual lows made it to seven. I've had numerous inquiries as to what constitutes strong or substantial volume. In the future, I'll use the 10-day and 20-day moving averages as the area of demarcation. Above both trendlines = "strong," within these trendlines = "average," and beneath both trendlines = "anemic." (This little snippet will remain in this space ad-infinitum as a reminder).