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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: tekboy who wrote (102472)6/23/2003 2:05:09 PM
From: stockman_scott  Respond to of 281500
 
Why don't we care about the WMDs?
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So far, Americans are giving Bush a pass about the lies used to justify the Iraq war. But will fear, ignorance, and faith in the president's integrity keep him Teflon-coated forever?

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By Michelle Goldberg
Salon Premium
salon.com

June 19, 2003 | At some point we will know just how wrong President Bush and his advisors were about the threat that Iraq posed to America; we will learn whether our leaders were lying or mistaken, well-intentioned or duplicitous. Whatever their motives, though, it increasingly looks like Bush spurred America to war with falsehoods, that much of the information the administration offered the public as a justification for a war that has so far killed more than 100 Americans, 30 Britons and several thousand Iraqis was not true.

Americans, though, don't seem to care.

Polls taken recently indicate that most Americans are either unconcerned at the apparent collapse of the rationale behind a war that's still killing their compatriots, or ignorant of the whole situation. Before the Iraq war, a Knight Ridder poll showed that nearly half of Americans surveyed believed, erroneously, that there were Iraqis among the Sept. 11 hijackers. During the war, a Los Angeles Times poll showed that 59 percent of respondents were convinced, despite all available evidence, that Saddam was either partly or mostly responsible for Sept. 11. Now that America's failure to find weapons of mass destruction in Iraq is becoming an increasingly contentious political issue, a third of respondents in a University of Maryland poll believed that the weapons already have been uncovered. A fifth of those polled think Iraq actually used such weapons in the war.

"Polls right now indicate that people are not believing that there was any fabrication or misleading" on the part of the administration, says John Zogby, president of the polling firm Zogby International. "Generally speaking, even in an era of greater distrust, most people still rely on their principal sources of information -- either news media or what leaders say via the news media. They get filtered information."

And, say some experts, because of the public's willingness to believe this "filtered information," the Bush team might remain unscathed even if it turns out they actively exaggerated Iraq's threat to the U.S. There are a number of reasons -- some historical, some intrinsic to all societies during wartime -- that Americans appear to believe things about the war that are demonstrably false, and there is a chance they'll never accept the idea that their president lied to them. The question, then, is whether American democracy can survive a citizenry that either doesn't know or doesn't care if its leaders tell the truth. At the very least, observe some experts, public ignorance, apathy or denial could change the kind of democracy under which Americans live.

In some respects, the issues of ignorance and denial have been perennial sources of anxiety in America. After each election, whenever fewer voters manage to drag themselves to the polls, there's a spate of "Whither democracy?" think pieces and intellectual handwringing about the country's declining civic culture. Books bemoaning Americans' benightedness are a staple of both the left and the right, from Noam Chomsky's voluminous writings on American domestic propaganda to Allan Bloom's "The Closing of the American Mind."

"The country goes through periods of engagement in popular and political culture and periods of disengagement," says Jay Rosen, a journalism professor at NYU who studies the media's role in democracy. "If you look at any one political moment, there are issues on which there is a great deal of public engagement and issues on which there isn't. It has a lot to do with how difficult the issue is [to understand]."

Others point out that past scandals gestated for months before the public started paying attention. "I've gone through several major government scandals both inside and out of government," says Michael Greenberger, a University of Maryland law professor who worked on counterterrorism issues in the Clinton administration. "I think there is always a slowness on the uptake. It takes a while to sort of pierce the American psyche. The Vietnam War took a very, very long time to pierce the public's concern. Watergate took months and months." As Zogby says, "It took the jaws of life to get Nixon out of the White House, and that's when most Americans thought he was guilty." Essentially, there is nothing new about politicians lying or about Americans not paying close attention to them.

This is of little comfort, though, to administration critics baffled by Americans' nonchalance toward the Bush administration's apparent dishonesty about Iraq. The Nation's David Corn spoke for many liberals when he wrote, "It is hard to resist reprising the GOP call of yesteryear, Where is the outrage? Just imagine how much shock and complaining there would be if we learned that 'American Idol' had been rigged. But Bush and his comrades can use deceptive means to launch a war and to pass trillion-dollar tax cuts that bust the bank -- and then skate away."

Right now, polls show that a majority of Americans don't believe that the Bush administration used deceptive means to launch a war. Part of the group that continues to trust Bush is made up of those who fundamentally disagree with Corn's analysis or are willing to wait longer for proof. "To anyone who's fair-minded about this, it's too soon to draw any conclusion that the weapons aren't going to be found, and whether they're found or not, it's extremely far-fetched to conclude that he didn't have them," says Joshua Muravchik, a scholar at the American Enterprise Institute. "Maybe he destroyed them. Maybe he's hidden them."

Many Americans, though, haven't come to their conclusions through a fair-minded weighing of the facts, because they don't have the facts. The reason is partly that, in the case of Iraq, the president has disseminated false information, and Americans, as much as they like to think of themselves as skeptics and rebels, tend to believe their presidents. "Do I believe that this war was waged for the flimsiest of reasons? I certainly do," says Zogby. "However, people will be trusting. It takes quite a commitment to get people not to trust what their president says."

"This has been happening for along time," says Rosen. "I remember being on the phone with journalists who were obsessed with the way Reagan would say one thing and do another. There were stories about what he didn't know about the world." The left, he says, would survey America and wonder, "How could they vote for this guy Reagan? Don't they see what a clown he is? Are Americans so hoodwinked by this guy?"

Muravchik, for one, rejects the notion of Bush's mendacity out of hand. "There's no chance that the president lied to the people," he says. "It would be such a catastrophic thing to do. It would be 10 times stupider than having Monica at the White House. It's inconceivable. This is really fantasy land. The world doesn't work that way."

Views like Muravchik's grow more common during wartime, says Dana Ward, a Pitzer College professor who serves as the executive director of the International Society of Political Psychology. "There's a tendency to rally behind a leader whenever there's any kind of bullets flying," he says. "We saw it in the first Gulf War and we certainly saw it in the second Gulf War. That is a normal part of the process. What's not normal, though it's precedented, is for the administration to put out information designed to manipulate public opinion."

Thus it's not surprising that Americans believed Bush when he said that Saddam was seeking nuclear components, backing al-Qaida and threatening America with obliteration. Nor is it surprising that many people accepted it when he said, bluntly and wrongly, that America has found weapons of mass destruction in Iraq.

In his State of the Union address on Jan. 28, Bush told Americans, "The British government has learned that Saddam Hussein recently sought significant quantities of uranium from Africa," though American intelligence agencies knew the only evidence underlying this assertion was a crude forgery. At his press conference on March 6, Bush said that Saddam Hussein "has trained and financed al-Qaida-type organizations before, al-Qaida and other terrorist organizations," though no link between Saddam and al-Qaida has emerged. On "Meet the Press" on March 16, Vice President Dick Cheney said, "[W]e believe he has, in fact, reconstituted nuclear weapons. On Polish TV on May 30, Bush said, "But for those who say we haven't found the banned manufacturing devices or banned weapons, they're wrong, we found them."

If the ignorance of many Americans is simply a result of believing their president (and many Democrats, who echoed the White House's assessment), such credulity is exacerbated by the mainstream press, which until recently hardly challenged the White House's assertions. Greenberger blames "captive media" that's wholly devoted to spouting the White House line. "That is something new and may be a reason it takes longer to sort of pierce the public's understanding of this. You have at least a half-dozen nationally known talk-show hosts who were supportive of [the Iraq war] and continue to articulate views that would make the average citizen believe there's not a problem here."

To simply say that the public has been duped by the White House and Fox News is far too reductive, though. While some Americans are deluded about Iraq's WMD, others simply don't care. After all, if a third of Americans surveyed believe weapons of mass destruction have been found, two-thirds realize they haven't been. Meanwhile, there's been an important shift in public opinion suggesting that Americans aren't much more attached to the president's initial justification for war with Iraq than Bush himself is. Before the war, a CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll showed that only 38 percent of Americans felt the war would be justified even if weapons of mass destruction were not found. When the same pollsters asked that question two weeks ago, 56 percent of Americans felt the war was justified even if the weapons are never uncovered.

This jibes with the idea, favored by New York Times columnist Tom Friedman, that weapons of mass destruction don't matter after all, both because Saddam was such a psychopathic sadist and because, post 9/11, America needed to strike somewhere in the Middle East as a show of strength.

Friedman expounds that idea as if it were a sophisticated bit of realpolitik, but a dumbed-down version of it may be at work in American life. "In a way, it's Americans' insularity, their isolationism, that may be showing its ugly head," says Susan Tifft, a Duke University professor and former Time magazine writer who's written several books about American journalism. "Saddam, Osama, they all sound the same, they're all rag-heads, so who cares? I don't think a lot of Americans have taken the time or considerable trouble to find the difference between Shiite and Sunni or Saddam and Osama."

Tifft, for one, finds the Friedman meme terrifying. "The idea that it doesn't matter whether we find weapons of mass destruction in Iraq or not is to me one of the most dangerous notions that's been put out anywhere in my lifetime," she says. "Basically, what it's saying is that the ends justify the means. In this case, it's hard to argue with the ends. As chaotic as things are, no one can say Iraq isn't better off without this psychopath. But if Americans buy into that notion, what they're saying is it's OK to destroy democracy at home in order to export it overseas.

"You cannot have a democracy if you have a government lying to you about the reasons that you're going to war," she continues. "If we're signing off on that tacitly or explicitly, we're living in a very different country than we ever did before."

It's unlikely, though, that many Americans have explicitly bought into this notion. In the end, say some experts, you can't understand public opinion regarding war if you assume it's based on literalism and rationality.

Rosen suggests that Americans were aware of the unspoken motives behind the Iraq war, which partly accounts for their current indifference. "If they didn't take the official rationale all that seriously in the first place, they don't necessarily feel they were lied to about it," he says. "People know certain things are done with a wink. They know there are public relations statements. They know something like propaganda exists. There may have already been a discounting of the weapons of mass destruction. How many people really took that seriously? A large percentage of the country was behind the war whatever the reason was."



To: tekboy who wrote (102472)7/18/2003 4:27:29 AM
From: KLP  Respond to of 281500
 
Re William Nash and Rachel Bronson: Hi Tekboy...I think this is the article you mentioned. The last 2 paragraphs are important obviously.

It does make me wonder however, how much of the information and intelligence we have now comes from the "middle layer (entrenched?)" in the CIA, State Department and other US Departments that help form the ultimate decisions in relation to the comments about the Balkans and the black markets etc because of not enough planning for law and order.

In other words, did the current information we have for Iraq, come from the same folks that presented information on the Balkans....If so, is there anything we can do about that?

In the Balkans, the international community focused most of its efforts on the worthy goals of stopping the war, followed by democratization and economic liberalization. Less attention was paid to establishing law and order. The result was black markets, corruption and politico-criminal syndicates. Such an outcome in Iraq would be disastrous to American interests in the strategic heartland of the Middle East.

Copyright © 2003 The International Herald Tribune | www.iht.com

Forces in Iraq: Swing from fighting to policing
Rachel Bronson and William L. Nash IHT
Tuesday, April 15, 2003


iht.com

NEW YORK The scenes of looting and disorder in Iraq's cities are shocking but they are not unexpected. In recent times, American soldiers have seen this in Panama, Haiti, the Balkans and Afghanistan. When a regime is overthrown, soldiers must be prepared to swing from shooting and killing to policing and pacifying. It is a difficult and dangerous transition that requires time, different rules of engagement, finely tuned military judgment and the right mix and number of forces.

Establishing and maintaining law and order is never easy, especially for an outside power not fluent in the occupied country's language, culture and history. If American and British forces are to turn their apparent military success into a political victory, they will need to act against revenge-killing, score-settling, organized looting and mob protests and riots.

History shows that a serious and early commitment to law and order is necessary to build a functioning economy, a free and fair political system and a healthy civil society - goals that the Bush administration espouses for Iraq. Postwar Germany was a successful experiment in democratization and post-conflict reconstruction not only because of Marshall Plan aid and an amenable culture, but also because the United States, France and Britain turned their militaries into constabulary forces and ordered war-weary soldiers to help the Germans rebuild.

In the Balkans, the international community focused most of its efforts on the worthy goals of stopping the war, followed by democratization and economic liberalization. Less attention was paid to establishing law and order. The result was black markets, corruption and politico-criminal syndicates. Such an outcome in Iraq would be disastrous to American interests in the strategic heartland of the Middle East.

Like Germany, and unlike Afghanistan or Kosovo, Iraq has a functioning army and police force. This will provide some advantages. The army remains one of Iraq's more respected institutions, so it could take over law and order from outside forces. But until Iraqi personnel have undergone depoliticization and retraining, public security will fall directly on the shoulders of British and American forces.

Policing and pacifying are labor-intensive and will require a real commitment on behalf of the American military, government and people. Military police and civil affairs officers are trained to undertake many of the required tasks, but they are in short supply. In their absence, tens of thousands of soldiers must spread throughout Iraq's key cities to end the reign of chaos.

Here Europeans have much expertise to offer. Italy's carabinieri, France's gendarmes and Spain's Guardia Civil specifically train to straddle the blurry security line between war and peace.

Given the international support that was required in the Balkans, the Bush administration should think seriously about how to overcome the international divisions over the war in Iraq and obtain the outside support it needs for reconstruction. While the United States could go it alone, it may not be wise to do so.

The Bush administration thus confronts two very difficult challenges. First, it must commit a large number of forces to policing the peace. The number of soldiers currently operating in Iraq may not be enough. Few in the administration are comfortable with using American soldiers in law and order operations. But failing to provide the resources that are needed now will threaten American soldiers serving in the field, as well as Iraq's future.

Second, and perhaps more difficult, is convincing others who do this as well or better than Americans to help out. It will require some fancy diplomatic footwork on the part of the administration. It's a good sign that the administration is already beginning to solicit assistance for policing.

America has a lot to learn from the Europeans when it comes to such matters. But significant wounds will need to be healed on both sides of the Atlantic before forces are generously offered and well-received. Perhaps finding common ground on issues relating to law and order - and recognizing the need to work together to establish the conditions for its success - could be a way to start healing those very open wounds.

Rachel Bronson is director of Middle East studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. William L. Nash, a retired U.S. Army major general, is director of the council's Center for Preventive Action. He led U.S. troops into Bosnia after the Dayton Accords and served as a regional UN civilian administrator in Kosovo.

Copyright © 2003 The International Herald Tribune



To: tekboy who wrote (102472)7/18/2003 6:36:53 AM
From: stockman_scott  Respond to of 281500
 
How PNAC Had Their Way with our Foreign Policy

atimes.com