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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: KyrosL who wrote (102488)6/23/2003 6:22:40 PM
From: LindyBill  Respond to of 281500
 
I guess Bremer figured it out at last. He is not as dumb as I thought he was. There is hope, if he keeps showing this kind of flexibility. Paying them for "an indefinite period"? That's a lot more generous than I had proposed.


I read that this morning, laughed, and said "If that does not make KL happy, I give up!"



To: KyrosL who wrote (102488)6/23/2003 6:25:10 PM
From: LindyBill  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 281500
 
NEWS ANALYSIS

This article is probably fairly accurate. Robin is one of the best ME reporters in the country.

The Road Map to Bush's Conversion
Six pivotal events took the president from arm's-length involvement in the Arab-Israeli conflict to deep commitment to it.
By Robin Wright
Times Staff Writer

June 22, 2003

DEAD SEA, Jordan ? Like nine American presidents before him, George W. Bush has finally and fully been lured into the Arab-Israeli imbroglio. But the conversion, from keeping the issue at a distance to being deeply and personally committed to it, was a slow process that took almost two years.

U.S.-brokered mediation over the new "road map" for peace now appears on the cusp of either breakthrough or setback. Whether his administration succeeds or fails, the outcome is likely to be a big piece of Bush's legacy.

Six pivotal events have gradually transformed the president's thinking. "It's been an evolutionary thing," said a senior administration official.

The Sept. 11 terrorist attacks forced the issue. In a United Nations speech designed to address the terrorist threat to modern civilization, Bush became the first U.S. president to formally call for an independent Palestinian state. He spoke of it briefly, however, as a principle ? in the 34th of 41 paragraphs. It was included, after lengthy internal debate, largely in the context of terrorism and as a signal that the United States wanted justice for Muslims too, U.S. officials said.

The administration, engrossed with Afghanistan and Osama bin Laden, also didn't want to follow in the footsteps of the Clinton administration, which had failed in last-ditch peace talks at Camp David. Moreover, its new foreign policy team, weighted with pro-Israel neoconservatives, didn't believe that Palestinian Authority leader Yasser Arafat was capable of making peace, the sources added.

So the pledge was basically left hanging.

The next turning point was instead an "eloquent message" and a somewhat gruesome video, both delivered by Saudi Arabia's imposing Crown Prince Abdullah during his visit to the president's ranch in April 2002, an administration official said.

The crown prince, the de facto ruler of the oil-rich country since King Fahd's debilitating stroke in 1995, was fresh from an Arab League summit where he had engineered an agreement to formally recognize Israel in exchange for the Jewish state ceding territory it occupied in the 1967 Middle East War. That diplomacy was the carrot.

The stick was a video portraying Palestinian suffering since Israel cracked down on Palestinian territories in response to the uprising. It included "images you couldn't put on TV," said a State Department official.

Abdullah "went to some trouble to acknowledge Israeli suffering and to say it has to end. But he wanted to show that the Palestinians were suffering too, that it was a humanitarian disaster for both sides. He convinced the president with a passionate and eloquent message about the need to act," the official said.

The leaders forged a strong bond, Bush told reporters after the meeting. "We share a vision."

Timing was key. With the Afghan war victory under Bush's belt and U.S. focus shifting to Iraq, Saudi Arabia had particular leverage. So did Abdullah's argument that new U.S. movement on the Arab-Israeli conflict was essential to Washington's claim that it wanted peace and stability in the world's most volatile region ? a message echoed by many other allies in the weeks that followed.

On June 24, Bush acted on a promise to Abdullah and the others to back up the pledge made at the United Nations, U.S. officials said.

In a Rose Garden speech, he dangled the prospect of a Palestinian state within three years if the Palestinians changed their leadership, introduced sweeping political reforms, wrote a new constitution, revamped security and ended violence.

"An end to occupation and a peaceful democratic Palestinian state may seem distant, but America and our partners throughout the world stand ready to help you make them possible as soon as possible," Bush said.

This offer lingered too, however, as Arafat stubbornly clung to power and the White House began using its leverage instead to press for an end to Saddam Hussein's rule in Baghdad.

Efforts to come up with a specific formula were almost derailed in December as the "quartet" of major powers ? the U.S., United Nations, European Union and Russia ? ironed out the steps, envisioning a final settlement by the end of 2005, U.S. officials said.

Although the other parties wanted to publicize the terms, the administration insisted that the three phases should be keep secret until the Palestinians chose a new leader and acted on other U.S. demands.

"It is a pity. It is key to maintain momentum, keep a political perspective in the process and safeguard the credibility of the quartet," Danish Foreign Minister Per Stig Moeller said for the EU. "Much goodwill has been invested in 'selling' the road map concept to the parties. They now expect the quartet to deliver."

At one point the quartet almost collapsed. "The other members were about to boycott the event. The way we got them to attend was to say they could meet the president and if they had concerns they could tell him. They did ? and they told him he needed to be engaged, that they feared his heart was in Iraq and not this," said the administration official. Bush "intimated that his heart was in Iraq, but promised that he did not intend to ignore this."

Every time Bush was engaged or confronted on the issue, he got drawn in deeper, U.S. officials say. Although the administration was diverted by the Iraq crisis, the issue actually ended up adding to the pressure for an Arab-Israeli peace.

British Prime Minister Tony Blair's January visit to Camp David was the most telling of many such moments, U.S. officials say. Although the visit was pegged to joint efforts on Iraq, Blair made a strenuous case that any campaign against Hussein had to go hand in hand with a more vibrant effort on the Arab-Israeli conflict.

The final major moment in Bush's evolution came this spring, following complaints from top Israeli officials that the peace plan reflected the State Department's view and not what the president had outlined in his June 24 speech, administration officials said.

Bush told national security advisor Condoleezza Rice to compare the plan and his speech. So Rice contacted Secretary of State Colin L. Powell and asked for a one-page guide summarizing the lengthy specifics of the plan. Bush then compared his speech and the plan and pronounced them identical in goals and format, officials say.

It was a crucial moment for two reasons. The immediate effect was that, unlike the once-deep chasm over Iraq, the administration has been "very much in sync" on the peace plan, said a well-placed U.S. official. Bush, who considers Israeli Prime Minster Ariel Sharon a friend, also signaled that he did not intend to be swayed in his determination to press both sides to take tough steps.

When Palestinian Authority legislators approved Mahmoud Abbas as prime minister on April 30, Bush was ready to go. The same day, the specifics of the plan were revealed. Five weeks later, Bush launched his initiative to get things moving at two summits, first with Arab leaders on Egypt's Sinai peninsula and the next day with the Israeli and Palestinian prime ministers in Aqaba, Jordan's Red Sea resort.

By then, the president had become deeply enmeshed in the conflict, reflected by a now widely recounted anecdote.

At the first summit, on June 3, Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak was supposed to make opening remarks and then close the session to the media. But when Bahrain's emir started to talk before cameras could be removed, Mubarak also offered Bush an opportunity to comment. To the surprise of even longtime U.S. specialists, he ad-libbed the list of talking points without notes or hesitation.

"Bush is now energized," said the well-placed official. "He has an idea of what he wants to do. He gets it. He really gets it."
latimes.com



To: KyrosL who wrote (102488)6/23/2003 9:08:51 PM
From: Jacob Snyder  Respond to of 281500
 
An Iraqi national army of 40,000, would be much smaller than the 2 Kurdish armies combined, smaller by far than the 150,000-strong U.S. army of occupation, smaller than the armies of the neighboring nations of Iran, Turkey, Syria, Israel. The basic requirement for sovereignty, is that a nation have a governmnent, and an army, that controls the ground within the borders of the nation. A 40,000-sized Iraqi army can't do that. And, further, that army will answer to American soldiers, not to any Iraqis. Until the largest military force within the borders of Iraq, is an Iraqi army that answers to Iraqis, then Iraq is not a sovereign nation.



To: KyrosL who wrote (102488)6/24/2003 2:13:52 AM
From: LindyBill  Respond to of 281500
 
BIO 2003

A reporter's notebook on the biotech industry's annual get-together
By Ronald Bailey - Reason Magazine

Washington, DC. - For the next 3 days I will be writing a reporter's notebook detailing what I learn and hear at the Biotechnology Industry Organization's (BIO) big annual convention, which is being held in Washington, DC this year. BIO 2003 may be the biggest biotech industry confab ever; some 17,000 representatives from industry, universities, and government have signed up to attend.

Covering such a vast event is spotty at best. There are scores of panels, discussions, press briefings, speeches, and hundreds of exhibition booths; so everyday I will offer the best bits of news and ideas that I hear while I rush from one event to another.

Prior to BIO 2003, on Friday I met with a group of South African scientists and farmers who are in town to push for access to the benefits of plant biotechnology for Africa. Peter Rammutla, a cereal farmer and president the South Africa's National African Farmers Union, said he was in DC to put a "special focus on access to this new exciting technology that we believe can help our farmers and improve our food security." Jocelyn Webster, a microbiologist who is a director of AfricaBio, wants "to facilitate access to this technology for all sectors of society." She adds, "We don't want biotechnology to be undermined by groups that have been very vocal but don't really represent very many people. The application of biotechnology in Africa is really very critical." She fingered groups like Biowatch, Earthlife, Consumers International, Food First and the Organic Farmers' Cooperatives as being particularly egregious in peddling anti-biotech misinformation in South Africa.

The anti-biotech activists have been very successful in frightening people in countries where scientific literacy is even lower than the abysmally low level of the developed countries. Webster cited some horror stories to highlight the lack of knowledge about plant biotechnology. In one case, a South African parliamentarian asked during a hearing whether or not biotech foods are "having an effect on our children by making them sexually active at ages 9 and 10?" Another anti-biotech group argued that they "didn't want genes in their food." (Of course every living thing has genes?I suppose they could eat minerals.) A call came into AfricaBio from someone who worried that biotech foods had turned her pet rat pink. And another person whose neighbor had just given birth to a very big baby, wondered if biotech foods weren't to blame. Rammutla pointed out that activist misinformation campaigns are very effective. After all, he said, "If someone tells you that this crop will give you cancer, you don't say, 'Oh I think I'll try it and see.' You run away. This is one of the activist tactics in South Africa."

Thanduiwe Myeni, a woman cotton farmer from the Makhithini Flats region of Kwazulu/Natal in South Africa, said, "I am here to tell how biotech cotton has changed and affected my life and how it has helped us a lot." She pointed out that a hectare of conventional cotton, which is typically drenched in pesticides weekly, produces 4 to 5 bales of cotton. Meanwhile, the new insect resistant biotech cotton produces 9 to 10 bales of cotton. When asked about the price of the biotech seeds, she acknowledged that these are more expensive but said, "We more than made up for the cost on what we saved in reduced pesticide purchases."

Of course, one of the big stories last year was the refusal of the governments of Zimbabwe and Zambia, countries in which 12 million people were on the verge of starvation, to accept shipments of food aid from the United States because they contained biotech corn. When I was in South Africa for the Earth Summit last September I learned that both countries had been importing biotech insect resistant corn from South Africa for years without objection. The AfricaBio representatives confirmed that this was so. So apparently, only American biotech corn is dangerous.

THE BIOTECH PRESS LUNCHEON

On Sunday, BIO launched its annual convention by feeding us journalists genetically enhanced foods. The press luncheon featured dishes made using ingredients from biotech crops. For example, there was a papaya smoothie made from papayas genetically enhanced to resist a viral disease. There was a vegetable napoleon cooked using corn oil from herbicide resistant corn and composed of layers of squash and zucchini that were also genetically engineered to resist diseases. Finally, we were served a chocolate toffee desert made using soybeans modified to resist herbicides. I sat beside a German journalist from Cologne who had no problem devouring all of the genetically enhanced food on her plate despite the huge fears being peddled by anti-biotech activists in Europe. According to BIO, 6 million farmers in 16 countries planted 145 million acres of biotech crops in 2002, up 12 percent over 2001.

The luncheon speakers focused on efforts to use biotech to solve medical and food problems in poor countries. Jean Pierre Garnier, CEO of the pharmaceutical giant GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) started the session off describing his company's efforts to supply drugs to people in poor countries. For example, GSK has launched a $1 billion campaign to "wipe lymphatic filiariasis from the face of the earth." The filiariasis parasite infects as many as 200 million people and causes a condition called elephantiasis. GSK is donating its drug albendazole for 15-20 years to programs to eradicate the disease in poor countries. So far they have treated 100 million people. Garnier believes that the only way to get drugs to people in impoverished countries is a combination of for-profit development in rich countries with drug purchases on behalf of the poor by foundations or government agencies. He cited the $750 million donated by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation to fund efforts like the International Vaccine Initiative.

Kenyan biotechnologist Florence Wambugu who heads up A Harvest Biotech Foundation International, has created a biotech sweet potato that resists a viral disease. This biotech sweet potato should be available to African farmers in the next couple of years. She points out that Africa missed the Green Revolution and she wants to make sure that the continent doesn't miss the Gene Revolution. Her organization focuses on crops important to African food security, particularly genetically enhanced sweet potatoes, bananas, cassava and rice. Insect resistant corn has been a great success in South Africa. "Biotech is not merely desirable, it could be the best option for the world to get Africa out of poverty, hunger and malnutrition," she argued.

Una Ryan, CEO of Avant Immunotherapeutics, spoke about how her company is aiming to make a profitable business out of developing bacterial and viral vaccines for diseases like cholera and typhoid that would be especially useful in poor tropical countries. "What drives progress is free market business and I want to see if I can make a business out of global health," she declared. In other words, she thinks that she can get the cost of manufacturing safe effective vaccines down so low that even the poorest can afford them. So Avant is developing a new generation of oral vaccines that are single dose, rapid acting, and require no refrigeration. A lot of current vaccines are costly because they require refrigeration that is a scarce and costly resource in a lot of poor countries.

Robert Horsch from Monsanto spoke next. He is in charge of public/private partnerships to get biotech to smallholder farmers in the developing countries. He offered five reasons for why plant biotech was relevant to developing countries: (1) it's a product built into the seed and farmers know how to use and cultivate seeds; (2) plant biotechnology is scale neutral, that is it works as well on 1 acre as it does on 1000 acres; (3) plant biotechnology can solve problems that other techniques like conventional plant breeding, agricultural chemicals, and crop management can solve; (4) biotech crops are recyclable, biodegradable, solar powered products; and (5) biotechnology is an information technology, which means that it is shareable and scaleable?it can be shared by a lot of farmers on a lot of acreage unlike other inputs like tractors and fertilizers. Plant biotechnology is particularly valuable in poor tropical countries where pest pressure is constant and unrelenting.

The final speaker was Ganesh Kishore, VP for Technology Agriculture and Nutrition at DuPont. He pointed out that nonbiotech cotton often requires as many as 16 sprays of pesticides in developing countries. This is very expensive and if a farmer misses one spray his whole crop could be lost. DuPont is conducting research to improve the taste and texture of soybeans as well as ways to increasing the amounts of beneficial amino acids like lysine in them.

THE BIOETHICS PANEL

Next up was a panel on bioethics. Without offering a blow by blow account, there were some remarkably interesting insights offered by the panelists. Craig Venter, whose company Celera raced the government to the decoding of the human genome, made a passionate statement concerning Congressional attempts to outlaw stem cell research. "It is the most important field in biology," he declared. He decried "the tremendous insertion of religious beliefs into the heart of science." He denounced Congress' attempt to "criminalize stem cell research, criminalize patients who would travel abroad to get stem cell treatments and criminalize parents who would seek stem cell treatments for their children. These are some of the most frightening trends we've ever had in this country." In a controversial move, Venter suggested that "we should encourage poor countries to steal our technology." He argued that entrepreneurs in the United States used to steal technologies from Europe which greatly aided our economic development. Once countries achieve a certain level of development, we should begin to enforce our intellectual property rights against them.

Pennsylvania University bioethicist Arthur Caplan argued that "more than any other nation on earth, we are technologically oriented." Therefore it is hard to set limits on the use of biotechnology because of our technological optimism. Simon Best, CEO of the British company Ardana Biosciences noted, "In Europe we are much less in love with technology and much more in love with limits." Best noted that in discussing biotech developments, "there is always the fear that we are going to rush to the limits." So he said that we end up having furious "science fiction" debates over hypothetical developments that are years away from becoming real prospects. In conversation later, Best pointed out that Europe, by rejecting biotech crops, is effectively deciding that it will be the region of the world whose consumers eat the highest levels of pesticide residues.

Kevin Fitzgerald, a Georgetown University bioethicist and Roman Catholic priest, said that when he is asked about stem cells, "My first reaction is to duck." He noted that there is a lot of confusion in this area. "We shouldn't start with the question of what is the moral status of the embryo, we should first ask what is an embryo?" said Fitzgerald. "We need a good definition of an embryo." He noted that 75 percent of naturally produced embryos "never make it." They fail to implant in the uterus and simply disappear in women's menstrual flows. To show how confused the situation is Fitzgerald cited the recent University of Pennsylvania stem cell research that apparently produced human eggs from human embryonic stem cells. "Now what if it turns out that this egg created by stem cells, unlike a normal human egg, can be parthenogenically activated?that is it can start dividing and developing into a complete embryo without needing to be fertilized. What was it before it arose from the culture dish of stem cells?" he asked.

Francis Collins, the head of the National Human Genome Research Institute, opined that we have made an artificial distinction between embryonic and adult stem cells anyway. He pointed to the recent discovery of the nanog gene that maintains stem cells in their pluripotent (capable of becoming any of the tissues of the body) or even totipotent (capable of developing into a complete embryo) state may make the distinction irrelevant. "What happens when it becomes possible to drop a skin cell into a chemical cocktail to make it totipotent?" Collins asked. He added, "That's coming soon."

Francis Fukuyama, author of Our Posthuman Future and a Johns Hopkins professor, noted that "if there is as much plasticity in human cells as Francis Collins suggests, then the issue of embryonic stem cells versus adult stem cells will become quite irrelevant."

The one thing that all panelists agreed on was that reproductive cloning, that is, cloning to make a baby, would be immoral because the risk of harming the eventual child is far too high. They also agreed that reproductive cloning, even if it were possible to do safely, would never be very important in the long run.

Ronald Bailey, Reason's science correspondent, is the editor of Global Warming and Other Eco Myths (Prima Publishing) and Earth Report 2000: Revisiting the True State of the Planet (McGraw-Hill).
reason.com