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To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (4976)	6/23/2003 6:47:34 PM
From: A Horse With No Name	Respond to of 5423

jim sorry to hear that. i really hope that your bet on the markets pay off big time for you. take care

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (4976)	6/24/2003 8:59:02 AM
From: 4figureau	Respond to of 5423

Gold: 354.3 Silver: 4.54 USD: 94.09 Gold firms in Europe, focus on U.S. rate meeting Veronica Brown LONDON, June 24 (Reuters) - Gold edged up in thin European trade on Tuesday morning with most market participants firmly parked ahead of a decision on U.S. interest rates from the Federal Reserve's two-day meeting that begins later on Tuesday. Bullion found support from small pockets of buying interest stimulated by a rise in the euro, which made the metal more affordable for European investors. "We're very quiet this morning, we've had a bit of Far Eastern demand and that pushed the price up but the market has had little interest ahead of the Fed meeting," one dealer said. The Fed's bellwether federal funds rate stands at a 42-year low of 1.25 percent, after a steep easing cycle that began in January 2001, when the economy was entering a mild recession and the key lending rate stood at 6.5 percent. While analysts agree that there will be a rate cut after the Fed's two-day gathering, opinions are divided on whether the reduction will be 25 or 50 basis points. A 0.25 percentage point rate cut could initially depress the dollar, which could spark a rush for gold, particularly outside the United States. But a Reuters poll on Friday found a slim majority of Wall Street bond dealers forecasting a half percentage point cut. "Further interest rate cuts should stimulate the manufacturing sector even further. In such an environment we would expect gold to weaken, although support just above $350/oz is holding for the time being," Barclays Capital said in a daily report. At 1017 GMT, spot gold was quoted at $354.50/5.00 an ounce, compared with $353.60/354.10 at the start of Asian trading and $352.80/353.30 last quoted in New York late on Monday. STILL POSITIVE Analysts were still bullish on the medium-term prospects for bullion once the rate decision had been absorbed, with consumer and investor demand picking up. Physical buying interest has continued on expectations of a U.S. rate cut signalling further economic uncertainty, which enhances gold's value as an alternative asset. "For the medium term, the picture is still positive -- and we still remain bearish on the dollar," said Kevin Crisp, precious metals analyst with Dresdner Bank. "Already this week there has been some interest from investors in Europe for higher prices later on this year, through trade products such as gold warrants," he added. The euro was trading at $1.1574/78 against the dollar after hitting a high of $1.1583 earlier. Spot silver was unchanged on the day at $4.55/57 an ounce. Spot platinum edged down to $663.00/668.00 from $665.00/670.00 quoted late Monday in New York, while palladium was flat at $177.00/184.00 an ounce. forbes.com

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (4976)	6/24/2003 9:04:54 AM
From: 4figureau	Respond to of 5423

Thanks Alan, have a boiled potato, a napkin, & a glass of water on me Richard Russell Dow Theory Letters Jun 24, 2003 >>Hasn't Alan Greenspan knocked short rates down to 1.25%? Hasn't he given the nation's old guys and gals nightmares as they wonder whether their savings are worth anything at all? Hey, a geezer spends a lifetime saving $200,000 and what does he get today for his money-market fund or his CD or his T-bills? A lousy $2,000 a year. Thanks Alan, have a boiled potato, a napkin, and a glass of water on me.<< -- How about inflation? Is our government lying to us about inflation? Of course it is. Lying about inflation saves the government a fortune in Social Security expenses alone, since SS payments are adjusted for inflation. Even Pat Jackson, the senior economist who calculates the official rate of inflation (the Consumer Price Index), admits that the data on inflation that the government puts out are fudged. A recent WSJ story quoted Jackson as admitting that the "widely-reported numbers understate the rising cost of living from one year to the next." Hardly a day goes by that I don't receive an e-mail from a subscriber complaining that he's paying more for most of the everyday items he buys from ball game tickets to taxes to home repairs to college tuition to -- well, you name it. In fact, John Crudele, who writes the widely-read economics column for the New York Post, estimates that the rate of inflation is now running around 5%. Now I'll let you in on a little secret. I don't think Alan Greenspan gives a damn about the cost of living. I don't think he cares whether you're paying more for services and college tuition or anything else. What Alan Greenspan does care a lot about is ASSET DEFLATION. And for that read real estate prices and stock prices. Hasn't Alan Greenspan knocked short rates down to 1.25%? Hasn't he given the nation's old guys and gals nightmares as they wonder whether their savings are worth anything at all? Hey, a geezer spends a lifetime saving $200,000 and what does he get today for his money-market fund or his CD or his T-bills? A lousy $2,000 a year. Thanks Alan, have a boiled potato, a napkin, and a glass of water on me. No, it's asset deflation that Greenie is concerned with. Because the whole economy of the US is now living off the rise in home prices and to a lesser degree on the rebound in stock prices. And the one thing the Green Man doesn't want to see is a top-out in the price of real estate or maybe just as bad, a resumption of the bear market in stocks. The Fed is absolutely obsessed with keeping the price of housing up and keeping stocks simmering. Because, you see, under the current system, everything is debt. Let asset deflation enter the picture, let the consumer see the price of his home and his stocks head south, and the next thing the great American consumer will do is cut back on his buying and maybe, God forbid, even start to save. If that happens banks stop making loans, the money supply shrinks, things get out of hand, and the first thing you know the whole system evolves into an out-of-control mess. -- All eyes are on the Fed. Will they cut .25% or .50%. Or will they cut at all? If they cut, I doubt whether it will do any good. Maybe they should pay you to take out a mortgage. In the meantime, the problem for the average investor or saver is -- "Where the hell can I get some income?" Write a letter to Greenspan, maybe he knows. I wrote two years ago that the operative word in this bear market would be INCOME. I'll stick with that prediction. 321gold.com

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (4976)	6/24/2003 9:10:59 AM
From: 4figureau	Respond to of 5423

Economy in post-SARS China taking off 'like a rocket' By David J. Lynch, USA TODAY HONG KONG — China has weathered the financial fallout from the SARS virus so well that some economists now worry crucial sectors are at risk of overheating. "China is rising like a rocket," says Jonathan Anderson, head of Asia-Pacific economics at UBS. The SARS epidemic, which shuttered Beijing's retail businesses and virtually eliminated foreign tourist arrivals, temporarily cooled an economy that had posted an eye-opening 9.9% first-quarter growth rate. But now, economists who only weeks ago were cutting their growth forecasts are raising them. "What you took away, you're going to have to give back," says Tim Condon, ING Barings' chief Asia economist. Halfway through the year, most expect Beijing to meet or exceed its 7% growth target. Signs of China's renewed surge: • Exports are up 34% this year. A stronger euro, which makes Chinese products less expensive for European buyers, has helped boost exports to the European Union by 45%. Exports to the USA are up 35% and on pace to top last year's $125 billion. That means China could overtake Mexico as the USA's second-largest source of imports, says Morgan Stanley's Andy Xie. • Investment in fixed assets — factories, machinery and equipment — jumped 32% the first five months of 2003. • Electricity demand, a barometer of industrial activity, is up 15%. One worry is that China's sizzling market for high-end residential property could overheat. Outside Beijing, scores of new villa compounds aimed at expatriate executives and affluent Chinese are rising even as existing units sit vacant. In Shanghai, a widening investigation of a major developer casts a chill. "The property market is about to see another slide," says Dong Tao, chief regional economist at Credit Suisse First Boston. And as China grabs global manufacturing market share from other countries, it is coming under pressure to revalue its currency to make its exports more expensive. The Chinese yuan is effectively pegged at 8.28 to $1. The dollar's plummet against other major currencies this year has not been matched by any change in the dollar-yuan exchange rate. That has given Chinese exports to the USA an artificial lift, though economists say even the modest rise in the yuan's value being discussed wouldn't significantly help U.S. manufacturers. Many U.S. manufacturers want the Bush administration to pressure Beijing to let the yuan float or appreciate against the dollar. The issue is complicated: More than half of exports from China to the USA are produced by multinational corporations. So while some U.S. manufacturers are hurt by China's undervalued currency, others are helped. usatoday.com