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Politics : Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (20918)	6/24/2003 1:25:40 AM
From: Cactus Jack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 89467

Jim, Sorry to hear about the job situation. If you've been there before, you know the shock will wear off. the funny part was the VP said today that another VP wants to hire me for hourly consulting work, but only about 10 hrs per month I obviously don't know your specific situation, and sure don't mean to be presumptuous, but sometimes great opportunities arise from odd circumstances -- and from necessity. I've seen some freelance consultants do much better than before they lost their "secure" jobs. Good luck. jpg

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (20918)	6/24/2003 8:36:25 AM
From: stockman_scott	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 89467

Could deflation happen here? A gloomy Stephen Roach says it may well be on its way. biz.yahoo.com <<...The international precedents aren't encouraging. A nasty deflationary cycle has held Japan in its grip since 1995; German core inflation is 0.8%, one-third that in the rest of Europe. Okay, Germany and Japan have sclerotic economic structures that resist the growth-oriented innovation that is the U.S.' hallmark. Why would deflation happen here? Roach frets that two powerful colliding forces are increasing the likelihood that it will. The first is that overcapacity, high debt loads and other late-1990s excesses are still unwinding in this country. In the absence of any pent-up U.S. demand or corporate pricing power, there's nothing to offset the baleful influence of such an economic purge. To Roach, if the boom era's unwinding had begun during a high-inflation period, the result would have been simply lower inflation, a fairly healthy phenomenon. But unwind when inflation already is low, he says, and "you have a legitimate risk of outright deflation." The second force is what he calls a "U.S.-centric" global economy, a dysfunctional situation where we depend on iffy foreign capital to keep going the only engine capable of restoring world prosperity. The U.S. economy accounts for two-thirds of the growth in the global gross domestic product; growth elsewhere has almost come to a standstill. Meanwhile Americans have overspent, while domestic demand throughout the rest of the world has remained below average. Result: A U.S. national savings rate that once averaged 8% of GDP has hit a record low of 1.3% and could go to zero. That would increase the U.S. account deficit to 7% of GDP from the current 5.25%, requiring massive financing from sluggish foreign economies that are perhaps unable to keep providing it. "You know that something has to give to bring this back into balance," Roach warns. If you find his jeremiads plausible, where should you put money? Roach is "worried and appalled" that investors have played chancy junk-bond and emerging-market debt--and are dipping into the same technology trends that got them into trouble in the first place. Instead, he says, he would think seriously about putting a "nontrivial portion" of his portfolio into precious metals like gold. Gold? Isn't that a classic hedge against inflation? Roach says it's a safety asset that will attract investors during any time of economic extremes--either inflation or deflation. One low-cost fund is American Century's Global Gold fund, which has returned 10% (annualized) over the past five years, charging only a 0.7% fee. USAA Investment's Precious Metals and Minerals fund has done better, returning 16.8% in the same period, but it levies a hefty 1.6% annual fee...>>

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (20918)	6/24/2003 10:43:24 AM
From: mt_mike	Respond to of 89467

Jim, sorry to hear about your job. Layoffs always suck but in this economy I guess it is a fact of life. Start working on your website by the end of next year bonds, real estate and stocks should be headed down hill and you can be one of the guys who was right on from the start.

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (20918)	6/24/2003 11:48:51 AM
From: lurqer	Respond to of 89467

layoff psych effect Life, being inherently a struggle, will occasionally "knock you down". Learned awhile ago, that the only question that mattered was "How long does it take you to get back on your feet?" Given your pugnacious, counterpunching nature, I'm not particularly worried. JMO lurqer

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (20918)	6/24/2003 12:16:11 PM
From: Clappy	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 89467

NonWorkingStiff, Sorry to hear about you losing your job. It must suck. Stuff like this happens for a reason. Its a signal for you to move on and do something important in your life using those great talents that you have. You are a smart dude. And a very good writer. It won't be long before you find something that that makes use of these talents of yours. Keep your eyes open and listen to your heart. Do something that really fulfills you. Now you've got the chance to do it. -Clapper P.S. In the mean time while you are looking for work, I could use a person who can clean my undies. Let me know if you are interested.

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (20918)	6/24/2003 1:03:22 PM
From: abuelita	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 89467

jim- but right now today this moment, it feels like the world is caving in so very sorry to hear that jim. hang in and hang on ... as you said, this could be an opportunity. make it happen. take care, rose