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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (35341)	6/24/2003 8:50:22 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 74559

Oops, Jay, and you still have these Message 18853097 <<April 17th, 2003>> in another account ... too much Argentina to keep track of :0) Chugs, Jay

To: TobagoJack who wrote (35341)	6/25/2003 10:16:29 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Gee Jay, <<escape, as in 'get-away' or getting out while the getting is still good: I sold ... Argentina>> Luck is much more important than all other factors. quote.bloomberg.com Argentina to Limit Investment, Discourage Speculators (Update4) June 25 (Bloomberg) -- Argentina will require investors to keep their money in the country for at least 180 days in a bid to discourage speculators and avoid a sudden drop in the peso following a six-month rally in the nation's stocks and currency. President Nestor Kirchner plans this week to restrict investment not related to foreign trade, Economy Minister Roberto Lavagna told reporters in Buenos Aires. The government estimates short-term capital invested in Argentina grew to $900 million in the past month from $550 million three months ago, he said. The restrictions threaten to undermine confidence that Argentina has helped instill less than two years after defaulting on $95 billion of bonds and devaluing the currency, said investors such as Scott Grannis at Western Asset Management Co. in Pasadena, California. South America's second-largest economy is starting to grow for the first time after more than four years of recession. ``If the Argentine government wishes to prevent investors from making short-term investments in the country, investors will almost certainly choose to invest less, to the detriment of the country's growth prospects,'' said Grannis, who helps manage $110 billion in assets, including $2.8 billion of emerging-market debt. Grannis sold his Argentine bond holdings before the default and hasn't bought any of the country's debt since. Stocks, Currency The government's decision comes as investors push up the value of Argentina's stocks, bonds and currency. The peso has climbed 21.7 percent against the dollar this year to 2.7620, the second best-performer after the Brazilian real among 59 currencies tracked by Bloomberg. The benchmark stock index has jumped 84 percent to 792.60, the world's best-performer, according to Bloomberg data. Argentina's 7 percent bond due 2008, which is in default, has climbed to an offer price of 33 cents on the dollar from 22 at the start of the year, according to J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. ``In the past three months we have seen a surge of capital inflows and we worry that quick outflows may the make the price of the currency unstable,'' Lavagna said. Hans Humes, who manages $260 million in emerging-market debt and holds defaulted Argentine bonds at Van Eck Associates in New York, said the move may encourage more longer-term investment and ultimately benefit the country. Kirchner, who took office in May, has said he wants the peso to weaken to about 3 per dollar to help bolster exports and spur economic growth. The peso today gained to within about 0.01 peso of its strongest level against the dollar since April 2002. Markets to Fall Argentina's plan will likely cause the nation's markets to decline tomorrow, said Brian Barish, president of Denver-based Cambiar Investors, which oversees $2 billion, mostly in equities. ``This is no way to attract investors,'' Barish said. ``Excessive capital controls tend to distort economic activity and it makes life very difficult for investors.'' Lavagna's announcement follows a two-day visit this week by International Monetary Fund Managing Director Horst Koehler, who said he wants to begin negotiations with Argentina for a three-year loan accord to help foster economic growth and attract investment. IMF spokesman William Murray didn't return messages left at his office, home and mobile telephone. Argentina signed an accord with the IMF in January to defer $6.8 billion in debt payments through August and the government is seeking another agreement. Argentina's gross domestic product grew 5.4 percent in the first three months of 2003 after contracting for 17 consecutive quarters. Last Updated: June 25, 2003 20:13 EDT