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To: bcrafty who wrote (76602)	6/25/2003 9:49:17 AM
From: Paul Shread	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

I think valuations have some use as a timing tool when individual issues get very stretched compared to their own trading history. But as you point out - forget it as far as timing the broad market. My favorite example - the Dow PE was 22 in 1946. Earnings doubled over the next two years, which you think would be bullish, but the market trended lower, giving the index a PE of 9.5 in 1948. Earnings and PEs really don't seem to have much to do with market direction, as far as I can tell, at least for timing purposes.

To: bcrafty who wrote (76602)	6/25/2003 9:54:46 AM
From: John Madarasz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

Here's a big monthly H/S that's setup exactly the same as the XBD on the weekly stockcharts.com Our [broker] Wall Street Bullish % is now at 84% and this compares with previous peaks of 86% in 9/00, 86% in 7/97, 82% in 2/93 and 90% in 1/92. Movements from above 70% in the bullish % to below 70% are sell signals. This week we saw buying climaxes in the following brokerage or brokerage related fund. American Express (AXP0. Bear, Stearns (BSC), Citigroup (C, E-Trade (ET), Goldman Sachs (GS), Lehman Brothers (LEH), Merrill, Lynch (MER), Morgan, Stanley (MWD), Prudential Financial (PRU), Raymond James (RJF), I-Shares S&P Global Financials (IXG), IShares DJ U.S. Financial Sector Index (IYF), Regional Bank Holders (RKH), SPDR Sector Trust Financial (XLF). ... We also saw a record 325 buying climaxes last week. In the past six years there have only been three weeks with more than 200 climaxes. A very high number this week, after 9 of the last 11 weeks have shown over 100 buying climaxes, www.chartcraft.com

To: bcrafty who wrote (76602)	6/25/2003 9:56:15 AM
From: At_The_Ask	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

I made some money long amzn when it was at 20. Had no idea that would go further but I knew I didn't want to be short it from looking at the chart. I don't see any reason why it can't go back to 50 or higher. It's like ebay or amgn, not to be f*ck'd with. Anyway peg ratio is probably better for deciding if something is overvalued. Even then you have to understand the business enough to know if however they are growing is likely to continue so just looking at a flat number isn't really enough. You can use them for screens or something but you have to go deeper. Growth stocks should carry a fairly high pe unless they are undervalued. I'll save the rest of the fundie's for another thread.