Inger
Bits & Bytes . . . notes a continuation of corrective action in many techs, while there is nothing particularly unusual going on. The consolidation continues generally in the healthy manner desired; the rate-discussions are more noise than importance here; and it's a time of year when we should be emerging from the basing psychology into a slightly more visible activity phase, as we move into the year's second half.
There are of course exceptions, even in technology. Today Sony (SNE) determined it will stop making CDMA cellphones for the U.S. market; a blow to companies tending to champion it, and particularly Qualcomm (QCOM); a chip-maker we'd argued for a period of years would not have the only dominant technology in wireless. Yes, there's a place for CDMA, especially as Sprint (FON) has implemented the associated high-speed data (Internet) access capabilities, but eventually GSM and GPRS systems do have roadmaps to challenge and exceed that; such as AT&T Wireless's (AWE) plan to rollout what's called EDGE, which is a true 3G, and exceeds the current offering.
Of course the economic environment has deterred rushed rollouts of anything these days, but in the case of the latter, there's a reason it will start in a few markets soon; the investment from Japan's DOCOMO requires AT&T to initiate the coverage, and despite the slow take-up by consumers (of data), they will likely opt to do just that. It's almost a competitive slam-dunk if AT&T finally offers an unlimited data access plan, which they currently do not. If they take that step (when the times right), competitors will find the going increasingly challenged. If they are able to rollout EDGE efficiently over the next year, and price it in a more attractive way; there's another interesting aspect: true high-speed cellular (style) unlimited access could disrupt all the WiFi rollout plans (hot spots and the like), which are great for interim technologies (we are big fans of WiFi and use it in our daily routine mostly to eliminate wire clutter), but do not cut-it compared to something like EDGE, which promises DSL-like speeds more or less anywhere the system is offered (Seattle and Dallas will be among the first).
It may also be why Dell (DELL) just today agreed to market AT&T (Sierra) wireless cards, but it is not yet entirely clear whether the GPRS cards will be compatible with EDGE; so it might be a way to move Sierra's inventory without being ready for the future. And separately, Michael Dell tends to agree with us; he see hints of the U.S. economy's stabilization, and remarked that it may 'even' be improving in some areas. His primary commentary today related to the perception of the 'digital home' and that he sees consumer electronics and personal computers functioning as one in homes of the future. Though they didn't announce it yet, that greatly correlates with my prior suspicion that Dell is indeed going to launch their version of the 'Media Center PC' in the 3rd or 4th Quarter this year, which will coincide with Microsoft's (MSFT) upgraded variation; smoothing out a small number of potential shortfalls in the first version. (By the way, don't mistake the WiFi comment; it will likely expand tremendously as a way to connect devices in the home and office, for years now that there's a standard; the suspicion though is that the 'ad-hoc' construction of networks may fade as a priority as cellular companies finally adopt truly 3G -early ones mostly really aren't- speed.)
Quite a long time ago, we occasionally conjectured about progress of a revolutionary improvement in weapons systems; particularly what was termed 'theater' warfare or THEL weaponry; then under tight-lid development at Kirkland AFB in New Mexico or by various primary and sub contractors. As long-time readers know, there were tests of the airborne systems developed (and ongoing) in specially-prepared Boeing 747's for the task. And there were adaptations being developed for Army land-based use.
Well, that's all ongoing too; but now (just a progress report) what is being heard is the miniaturization of the technology (something we alluded too as ultimately the goal for a workable system) so that it can fit in comparatively svelte aircraft, eventually maybe the Joint Strike Fighter (F22). In the interim, what's new now, is that the USAF is now likely to adapt the system even to function in F16's, and is developing a simulator at Kirkland for training pilots in operations of this truly 'Starwars' type weaponry; that will give the U.S. a clear edge over any conceivable opponent in the foreseeable future (of course, just to be skeptics, providing security of the technology is protected in for once a viable way). The USAF, according to sources, doesn't plan deployment until maybe as far away as 2010-'12, but will be testing a compact variation much sooner.
Though the project is expensive, the 'ammunition' (so to speak) isn't; as firing a beam of light not only costs as most a few hundred dollars, but travels instantly, making the system useful at very high speeds, where many conventional air-to-air or anti-missile missiles can't be launched at supersonic speeds by interceptor aircraft, because of a danger the launch vehicle might outrun the initial capability of the launched weapon. It is primarily to update investors about the progress that we mention this; as the fall's plan by the Flight Weapons Training staff, is to test the viability in simulators. It might be of interest to note that the 'range' of the 'beam' is going to be about 10 miles in the first iteration in an F16, rather than the 30-40 mile range of a 'sidewinder' for instance in terms of conventional weaponry. So, in the case of proximity to target, the fighters will have to come closer to approaching 'dogfighting' configurations of the old days; a reason why speed may be very important. If the tests are successful, technicians can then try to evolve the weapon into a more powerful longer range weapon, if aspects such as weight (and that's where miniaturization comes in) permit; it's 5000 lbs now.
Almost hilariously, the Air Force apparently has added software to control the system from 'Star Trek'. Pilots experimenting with early variations report it sounds exactly like a 'phaser blast'. It seems that Tactical Air Command, realizing it actually makes zero noise, needed to create a sensation of it being fired for the pilot; hence they recorded sounds from the film track it appears. Absolutely incredible; and we'll stay tuned. The primary contractors vary on this (much is secret); but lots of American and particularly Israeli firms (including Boeing (BA), Northrop Grumman (NOC) and Rapael, which is private, and others, including German optical firms, are involved in the project. It is not known which optical 'lens' patents or technology are involved in this variation. We have alluded to the possible deployment of a land-based version of THEL in Israel as the war approached, but there was never a need to find-out if that actually occurred. |
