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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold Price Monitor -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lucretius who wrote (95509)	6/26/2003 10:25:10 AM
From: Real Man	Respond to of 116759

We'll see it some day, obviously not today. Actually, we'll see Gold greater than Dow, at some point in future. That will be time to sell it, not now, dummy -g- If gold goes to 800 sharply on derivatives meltdown, it may fall back all the way to 350 afterwards. I kind of hope HUI is contained below 155 until August, on Fed fairy tails about deflation -g- Cause if it breaks it, we won't see these prices any time soon.

To: Lucretius who wrote (95509)	6/26/2003 5:08:42 PM
From: loantech	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116759

Luc, In a sense I am pounding my chest. XAU finished green today. Even though most of mine were down fractions as I own the grassroot and early exploration Canandian juniors some with drill reports some not. I think we may turn up from here. Time to cover your short positions. tom PS:My ideal scenario would be for the producers to sell off as I make nice gains on the explorers and swap late summer from explorers to sold down producers for the year end rally that may be quite nice this year (for POG) when the famous "3rd year" 2nd half recovery of the general economy fails to materialize.

To: Lucretius who wrote (95509)	6/27/2003 11:18:55 AM
From: goldsheet	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 116759

I haven't posted in about a month (apparently I have ruined my wrist/fingers from years of gold ranting). The following story is relatively close to my thoughts: LONDON, June 27 (Reuters) - Gold's two-year rally may begin to unravel later in 2003, having failed to take full advantage of factors which sent prices higher this year and depressed demand, analysts said on Friday. Societe Generale (Paris:SOGN.PA - News) and Barclays Capital both issued a gloomy prognosis for gold in research reports forecasting trends in the latter half of the year. In its global economic outlook report for the third quarter, Societe Generale noted gold had failed to revisit February's 6-1/2 year high at $389 an ounce, and that prices had faltered in recent weeks as the dollar gained a respite from its recent fall. "We view recent developments as vindicating our long-held contention that the bull market was not wholly secure in the face of poor physical fundamentals," the report said. Barclays Capital, in its Commodity Refiner for the second half of 2003, was similarly pessimistic: "The fundamentals of the gold market do not look supportive of the price in the medium to longer term." Gold's price rally, which whipped prices away from a low of around $254 back in April 2001, was massively aided by producer de-hedging, which saw gold miners buying back their previously sold future production. Economic, financial and geopolitical tension have also conspired to support the precious metal, especially in the face of the dollar's demise against major currencies. However, in euro terms, gold has recently returned to the bottom of its two-year range of 300-350 euros an ounce. Gold has an inverse relationship with the dollar, and has skipped higher in recent months as the dollar has lost ground. Recent dollar strength though has knocked the wind out of its sails. "If gold continues to act as a barometer for the health of the U.S. economy and dollar, then it should continue to trend downward, its descent hastened by the demand destruction that recent high prices levels have engendered," Barclays Capital said. Spot gold (XAU=) was trading around $346/47 an ounce on Friday afternoon in Europe, little changed from the previous session, but nearly four percent down on the week. TARNISHED JEWELLERY DEMAND "Ultimately gold is about jewellery and jewellery demand continues to stagnate," Barclays Capital said. Jewellery demand fell 10-12 percent in 2002 and has continued to slip so far this year as it is highly price sensitive. Barclays Capital said that gold appeared to be losing market share to platinum. "Despite all the hype, investment demand in the form of coins and bar hoarding did not increase greatly in 2002 and it has collapsed in H1 2003 after the one-off developments in Japan last year," Socgen said. Demand for gold bars was abnormally high in Japan in 2002 due to concerns over the stability of the country's banking system and the approach of an imposition of limits on insurance for some bank deposit accounts. Meanwhile, gold scrap supply -- also very price sensitive -- has soared in the last two years, while central banks have continued to dispose of gold. Socgen expected the market to continue to gain support from producer dehedging in 2003, but to a lesser extent, noting however that the low interest rate environment should also dissuade miners from selling forward. Barclays Capital said dehedging had artificially inflated the gold price and offered "false support". Socgen was expecting further dollar depreciation, although it said the bulk of its erosion might already have occurred, while financial/economic/geopolitical uncertainty would also be supportive for gold. "All in all, although we by no means rule out any fresh price rallies, we still tentatively suggest that the high has been seen, and that, in trend terms, gold will lose momentum in H2, 2003," the Socgen report concluded. Socgen forecast the average gold price for 2003 at $345 an ounce, and at $330 in 2004, compared with $310 in 2002 and $271 in 2001. It estimated the average price in the first half of 2003 at $350 an ounce. Barclays Capital's average price for 2003 was pegged much lower at $328 and at $290 for 2004. ($1=0.8741 euros)