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Strategies & Market Trends : Heinz Blasnik- Views You Can Use -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: GraceZ who wrote (2729)	6/26/2003 12:27:21 PM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Respond to of 4915

at the most basic level, reserves need to be exploitable on a net-energy basis. there's been research showing that very little deepwater reserves will be net-energy providers, even though they're counted as reserves. also, you need to understand that the oil industry is a very political place. all the OPEC countries were motivated to arbitrarily overstate their reserves in the quota wars, and they are not backdated. places like BP do not want to rock the boat with potential clients so these "reserves" are reported at face value. remember that the next time you open an xls file and think you are looking at "the truth". often they are the same figures reported two decades ago, arbitrarily raised now and then to match their neighbors as if in a poker game where players keep seeing and raising each other. then people who say oil will never end use these figures as "proof" of some sort. it is an ironic world we live in--people who wouldn't touch a third-world investment with a ten-foot pole are nevertheless perfectly willing to assume that figures provided by corrupt totalitarian states are as pristine as those provided by Norway or the US. yet-to-be-discovered is already taken into account in figuring for peak oil. oil discoveries peaked in the 1960s, and this is also consistent with peak oil occurring around now.