Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (247292)	6/26/2003 1:46:25 PM
From: ild	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

EDIT: IMO all bearish advisors has recently opened short hedge funds and stopped participating in stupid polls -g/ng- Date: Thu Jun 26 2003 13:05 trotsky (AAII poll and other observations) ID#377387: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved 71% bulls, 9% bears - that IS the worst bull/bear ratio EVER in this poll. while bulls reached over 70% at the Nasdaq top in March 2000 as well, bears never plumbed such depths. Investor's Intelligence advisors have become a bit more cautious, with slightly over 17% bears and slightly over 59% bulls, which still clocks in as one of the worst ratios of the past two decades. in the meantime, the 5 week moving average of the NYSE member net buy/sell spread has nosedived precipitously. this has been the biggest swing since the two weeks before the 9/11 tragedy, when NYSE members went on their biggest selling spree ever ( presumbly, their fortune teller told them something bad was about to happen ) . they have been net sellers in 4 of the last 5 reporting weeks, with one neutral week in between. meanwhile, insider selling has reached a deafening crescendo...insider net buy/sell spreads are extremely out of whack. you'd think WW3 was about to start next week the way they're dumping their stocks left and right. the negatives for the bear case are the following: Rydex bears have begun to move out of MM funds and back into leveraged Rudex bear funds again. likewise, many individual stocks still sport relatively high net put/call OI spreads. however, there's also a counterweight: as RIP said, bonds are a screaming buy. the Rydex bond ratio has just hit a new all time high of 12.63, up over 6 points ( !! ) yesterday ALONE. this means that Rydex bond short positions are now 12.63 TIMES larger than long positions - although this is just a tiny slice of the overall bond universe, it is a telling slice in terms of its empirical significance. such large Rydex bond short postions have ALWAYS resulted in huge bond rallies in the past - there hasn't been an exception yet. if i were to guess, i'd say something widely unexpected is coming down the pike - possibly more trouble from the GSE's or some other entity that's big in derivatives lala-land. something that will force a short covering orgy in bonds.