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To: bcrafty who wrote (76695)6/26/2003 2:54:44 PM
From: John Madarasz  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 209892
 
large % increases in margin debt that are very similar in % increase size to all time mania highs are informational imo. I'm looking to compare apple to apples in a percentage based structure.

I was offering the information in the context of gauging current speculative conditions as well, which I think are very high at this time.

When held under the same light with excessive bullish sentiment levels at or near all time highs, excessive insider selling, excessive all time high private and corporate debt levels, excessive unemployment levels, excessive personal bankruptcies and foreclosures, and current all time record highs in overbought readings from most bullish % indices, as well as recently deteriorating market breadth... i think Many U.S equities and indices could come under pressure sooner rather than later...

so i position myself accordingly as i see fit, and stop myself out if my combined positions move against my total trading portfolio value more than 5%



To: bcrafty who wrote (76695)6/26/2003 8:11:09 PM
From: Perspective  Respond to of 209892
 
What John said <g>. It's a contrarian indicator that tells me we're nearer the end than the beginning of this rally. You didn't see individuals piling on margin debt in 1988 or in 1991; there was widespread doubt. Surging margin debt indicates a speculative rally, in fifth wave mode.

BC