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Strategies & Market Trends : Heinz Blasnik- Views You Can Use -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (2738)	6/26/2003 4:13:17 PM
From: Mark Adams	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4905

if your idea is true, then we should be seeing a steady decline in petroleum demand. in fact the opposite is occurring. Which I think reflects what Grace said earlier- in inflation adjusted terms, energy got cheaper during the late 80's and 90's. Hence the popularity of 4WD SUVs for suburban moms who probably never use 4WD. nobody wants to think that anything could upset their high-consumption middle class American lifestyles. You must not have been listening in 2000, when the citizens of Kali squealed like cornered hogs. Of course, they didn't squeal right away- it took several months and a bankruptcy before they began to understand their cost of energy was going up. And they've fought tooth and nail to find a sinister villain to hang ever since. I have little doubt that energy prices will rise, and people will complain on an even larger scale. But it's not the $2/mth increased utility bills for consumers that will hurt- it will be the 5-10% increase in consumer staples across the board as the higher costs filter through the supply chain that will hurt the most. BTW- the numbers I've seen indicate a 70 year supply of found Natural Gas worldwide. Until recently, it hasn't proven economic to bring that gas to market. And there are areas of the world off-limits to production- typically due to geo-political causes. www.ft.com did an article the other day about the effort to bring landlocked Chad energy resources to market, and there have been articles recently on the efforts to bring landlocked Bolivian resources to market. These efforts are multiyear multibillion dollar gigs, and not entered into lightly.