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Politics : Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (21119)	6/27/2003 12:41:06 AM
From: stockman_scott	Respond to of 89467

Check out the Charlie Rose program on PBS tonight... charlierose.com DISCUSSION ABOUT THE ECONOMY with: JAMES GLASSMAN, Senior US Economist, JP Morgan Chase FLOYD NORRIS, The New York Times

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (21119)	6/27/2003 1:46:39 AM
From: stockman_scott	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 89467

Bankers, economist raise China's 2003 GDP forecasts after SARS Agence France-Presse Beijing, June 25 A day after the World Health Organization declared China SARS-free, bankers and economists on Wednesday issued a new flurry of forecasts predicting that the nation's economy will grow between seven to eight per cent this year. Investment bank Lehman Brothers said in a research note it had raised its China 2003 gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast to eight per cent from 7.3 per cent due to the country's rapid recovery from SARS, with the virus controlled a month earlier than expected. The WHO removed China from a list of areas affected by Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome on Tuesday, while also lifting a travel advisory against Beijing. Lehman Brothers said consumption had been hardest hit by SARS, due to travel restrictions, a shortened May Day holiday and the closure of entertainment venues. However, it said China's high spending level on essential goods helped cushion retail sales overall, with most domestic consumers spending the bulk of their income on essential items, as opposed to richer nations. The country's vast population also helped: the bank said the impact of the virus on Beijing was "severe, but for the whole of China the fear over SARS has likely been less than in Hong Kong, Singapore or Taiwan". Investment bank Citigroup in a research note also upgraded China's 2003 GDP growth forecast, to 7.5 per cent from seven per cent. It said the full impact of SARS on annual GDP growth was reduced to 0.5 percentage point from 1.5. According to the State Development and Reform Commission (SDRC), annual growth will likely slow by 1.1 percentage points from earlier forecasts due to the SARS outbreak but the growth rate will still exceed seven per cent, the People's Daily reported. The newspaper quoted Xu Lianzhong, an economist with the SDRC price monitoring center, as saying the epidemic will probably result in an approximate 80 billion yuan ($9.66 billion) loss in revenues for the country's tourism sector in 2003. Such a drop will in turn slow the GDP growth rate by around 0.8 percentage points, Xu said. The epidemic could also result in around a 21 billion yuan loss in turnover for the catering sector, contributing to a 0.2 percentage point slide in the growth rate, it said. Morgan Stanley earlier this month raised the GDP growth forecast to 7.5 per cent from 6.5 per cent and the growth forecast for exports to 21 per cent from 12 per cent, due to an expected stronger global economic environment. A UBS analyst meanwhile said GDP will likely grow at a consistently slower rate over the next few years, from eight per cent in 2003 to seven per cent in 2004 and six per cent or below by 2005. GDP was expected to grow nine per cent this year, up one percentage point from a year earlier, a report by China's National Bureau of Statistics said in April, without factoring in the SARS impact. hindustantimes.com