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To: TobagoJack who wrote (247428)	6/27/2003 8:51:04 AM
From: Box-By-The-Riviera™	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

indeed Sir! when it comes to the big picture, I have consistently urged patience. why? (might you ask) cuz i'm still fricken in the middle of painting it <g>

To: TobagoJack who wrote (247428)	6/27/2003 9:17:13 AM
From: Box-By-The-Riviera™	Respond to of 436258

the cover of their report is pretty cool >g<

To: TobagoJack who wrote (247428)	6/27/2003 1:28:47 PM
From: Perspective	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

So does anyone understand this little snippet on page 8: "This leads us to a third point: the Fed is almost guaranteed to take a capital loss on its portfolio. If the strategy works, the economy picks up, interest rates go up, bond prices go down, and the value of the Fed?s holdings of longer-term Treasuries falls." What are the implications of that? Of course there gonna get whacked if they pursue something as stupid as buying up long-dated T-bonds. Are they legally required to actually maintain some capital themselves? BC

To: TobagoJack who wrote (247428)	6/27/2003 1:32:25 PM
From: Perspective	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

My present roadmap is for Greenboink to back off now for a while and see what happens, wait for it to become painfully obvious that things still aren't working, and then - right when the necessary rebalancing is about to occur - he'll flinch and shoot his last couple of bullets. It should be at about the same time the markets are making marginal new lows. But he's too spineless and frightened of deflation to actually let the necessary rebalancing even begin. The idiots are all focused on price levels, when they are just signalling the huge supply/demand imbalances that are causing the deflationary pressures in the first place. And you can't fix them by encouraging the buildup of even more debt. I thought these guys were supposed to be intelligent... He's insuring that when the rebalancing does happen, he'll be powerless to provide any effective stimulus to the e-con-o-me whatsoever. As to investing strategy, I'm just waiting for the upside momentum to die, and a little downside momo to develop. Then I'll be shorting up until the next Fed move appears imminent. Then, I expect to play the reflation theme with precious metals and commodities and other dollar-debacle themes. BC

To: TobagoJack who wrote (247428)	7/12/2003 1:08:40 AM
From: UnBelievable	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

First Do No Harm Your original post and the Dallas Fed Document recently resurfaced. That article is one of the scariest things I have ever read. It amazes me that nobody seems to be questioning the effectiveness of "simulative monetary policy" with regard to stimulating the real economy. Before figuring out how to cut rates "below zero" it seems like someone would be at least a little curious about why cutting them to zero has not worked. Doctors used to believe that bleeding the patient would cure him. In this case the patient has been bled as much as possible using the traditional methods of cutting a vein, without any indication that it is helping the original disease, so now "doctors" are trying to figure out how to get a little more blood out by cutting into the internal organs. Capital is the blood of any economy. The economic problem we are currently experiencing is the result over a decade of capital mal-investment and resulting capital destruction, brought about in no small part through the initiatives of the Fed. Thus far they have only managed to severely debilitate the patient. I'm sure with the new "bleeding" techniques such as those described in the paper we can be sure that the patient will be dead in short order. Btw - the idea of throwing money from helicopters is not farfetched at all although I think that what actually takes place is the government throws money they do not have at things like helicopters - something that clearly has been going on for a while.