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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Warpfactor who wrote (19848)	6/30/2003 1:20:46 PM
From: kodiak_bull	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 23153

This is from 21st Century Alert (unfortunately without the charts): Big money liquidating Over the last few months the only consistently bullish sentiment indicator has been the Commitment of Traders (COT) data on the big S&P 500 futures contract. The "Big Boys" have been net long for this rally. But Friday's data release shows the commercial traders have already dumped massive numbers of contracts. [chart missing--but you can find a COT chart here on vtoreport.com The Large traders are pretty much flat, the commercials are short and the little guys might be said to be holding the bag?] This chart is courtesy of Tom McClellan, and McClellan Financial Publications. It shows how the commercial traders on the S&P 500 futures are now net short in a big way. So the market has lost a big underlying bid from these big money traders, and this important group is now betting on the downside. We also can't forget that the VIX is still at a low, low 21.71, and our sentiment tank is empty. The SPX has dropped over 40 points from the peak, and the VIX hasn't budged off the lows. This is a much more dangerous set-up to the downside than anybody is thinking. The consensus feels that all the recent strength can't possibly die away quickly, and that glorious new highs are in the bag after a needed "pullback". That's a very dangerous consensus opinion. The surprises -- like Friday's decline in the face of expected end-of-quarter "window dressing" -- should continue to come on the downside.